Wednesday, February 4, 2009

ADP Unemployment: -522,000 in January

I'm sure glad they consider this to be a lagging indicator! We should keep in mind that the ADP figure includes only private sector employment. Fortunately, January is typically the worst month for job cuts, too, so perhaps the worst may be over. Many companies are reluctant to lay off workers during the Holidays, so they delay job cuts until January. The risk, however, is that one round of lay-offs lead to lower consumption in the macroeconomic perspective, and new rounds of lay-offs in future months in a downward spiral.