Friday, November 16, 2012

Blame It All On Sandy!

This from Zero Hedge:

"Because not one Wall Street analyst could have possibly factored in the impact of Sandy into their expectations of the month's Industrial Production, which in October declined by -0.4% to 96.6 from 97.0 in the Fed's index, well below consensus expectations of a 0.2% rise, and down from last month's 0.4% increase, it is only logical to blame it all on Sandy. Sure enough, this is what the Fed just did: "Hurricane Sandy, which held down production in the Northeast region at the end of October, is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by nearly 1 percentage point." So let's get this straight: Sandy - which hit on October 29, or with about 94% of the month of October done and impacted New York and New Jersey, not the entire US, is responsible for 250% of the entire October 0.4% drop?  Can we please get back to the "It's all Bush's fault" excuses already. At least those were idiotic and funny. Blaming everything on Sandy is just the former. And yes, capacity utilization for the entire USA which came at 77.8%, the lowest since November 2011, and well below expectations of 78.3%, was obviously crushed by a tropical storm that impacted New York and New Jersey for 3 days in the month. Brilliant."

So, I might add, was that! Brilliant! 

Risk Rumor Ramp!

Based solely on the words of John Boehner that his meeting with President Obama was "constructive", S&P 500 futures have leaped 16 points (about 120 on the Dow) in less than 30 minutes. Oops! It wasn't "words" (plural), it was WORD (singular).

Harbinger of Things to Come

Stocks are losing ground again today on news that things are only getting worse in the economy. The headlines speak for themselves.

Rising lay-offs!

EU Enters Recession

It's a European-style nightmare!

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Stocks Drop Through Pre-Session Lows

Philly Fed Plunges, Stocks Holding Near Zero Line

Follow my earlier posting, stocks fell flat and have been straddling the flat line today. But now, the Philly Fed survey has been released, and it's very bad -- far worse than was expected. 

from Zero Hedge:

Let's see if Bush Sandy can be blamed for not only the Empire Fed, whose employment and expectations components plunged, for the Initial Claims, which soared and missed expectations by the second most in the past 13 years, but also for the Philly Fed, which just plunged from 5.7 to -10.7, far below consensus of 2.0, the 6th miss of the last 8 (except for last month of course), and returning to solidly negative territory after last month's "miraculous" pre-election surge. And while virtually all subcomponents plunged, the one that stood out to the upside was Prices Paid, as the margin collapse is set to ravage all companies not only in the greater Philadelphia region but everywhere else soon as reality, deferred for the duration of the Obama reelection campaign, slams everyone in the stomach.

From the report:

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased 16 points, to a reading of ?10.7. The fallback of the general activity index followed a single positive reading in October that was preceded by five negative monthly readings (see Chart). Nearly 32 percent of firms reported declines in activity this month, while 21 percent reported increases. The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, declined 4 points from last month and remains in negative territory.

Shipments  also fell this month: The current shipments index fell 7 points, to ?6.7. Declines in inventories were also more widespread this  month; 31 percent of firms reported declines compared with 21 percent in October. Labor market conditions at the reporting firms remained weak this month. The current employment index, at ?6.8, was slightly improved from its negative reading in October (?10.7) but has remained negative for five consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting decreases in employment (20 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting increases (13 percent). Firms also indicated fewer hours worked: The average workweek index was virtually unchanged but posted its eighth consecutive negative reading.

Price Indexes Drift Higher

The indexes for prices paid for purchased inputs and for prices received for respondents’ own manufactured goods moved higher this month. The prices paid index increased from 19.0 to 27.9, but the increase was attributable to fewer firms reporting lower prices rather than more firms reporting price increases. With respect to their own manufactured goods, the percentage reporting an increase in product prices (16 percent) was greater than the percent reporting a decrease (10 percent). The prices received index increased marginally, from 5.4  to 6.3.
And here is why the combined Empire and Philly Fed diffusion indices spell pain for the upcoming ISM print (courtesy of John Lohman):

Something is Wrong With This Picture!

This morning, we learned that new claims for unemployment are soaring. Initially, when the news was released, stocks went negative for the first time since yesterday's close. However, the second the NYSE opened, stocks began to soar, despite escalating violence between Israel and Hamas, and despite the soaring unemployment. Something is truly wrong with this picture.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Bellicose Talk Tanks Stock

Dow closed down about 190 today, partly on the increasingly bellicose talk and actions in the Mid-East, and also because of the announcement that Sandy will cost much more than expected!

More Weakness at Home and Abroad

More weakness abroad:

Leads to more weakness at home! Dow down 80 so far!

Stock Futures Rise Despite Fiscal Reality, EU Industrial Output Falls

Meanwhile, Obama seeks to extract a pound of flesh:
But futures rise anyway:

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Stocks All Over the Map Today

Despite a temporary rally on news that Home Depot is forecasting improvement in the housing sector, stocks have now gone negative with just 15 minutes left in the session.

Stocks Erase 100-Point Deficit

Monday, November 12, 2012

Futures Drop 75 Points in Evening Trading

This is a large move for evening futures trading. Something is afoot!

Dead Day on Wall St

What a strange occurrence when the Dow closes dead flat on Veteran's Day. Bizarre and rare event!