Friday, August 26, 2011
Here from Zero Hedge on US GDP:
The first revision to Q1 GDP printed at 1.0%, down from the preliminary Q2 GDP print of 1.3%, and as expected was worse than Wall Street consensus of -1.1%, although it was certainly not as bad as the miss to the preliminary number.
Stocks have dipped into the red as a result, but only moderately.
Next up: Ben Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech in just over an hour.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
By Simon Constable at WSJ
Why? Because the so-called TED-spread is spiking.
It measures stresses in the banking system. The higher it is the more stress there is in banking system.
Be warned stress never just stays between the banks. It usually reaches the so-called real economy in fairly short order. That’s where you and I live.
Over the past month the TED-spread has risen steadily to 32 yesterday from 16 at the end of July, levels not seen in way more than a year. That’s still well short of the extreme levels seen in 2008-2009 when it reached 463.
Be warned though, it can expand quickly so keep a close eye on it.
This somewhat obscure metric is easily calculated. Take the 3-month LIBOR rate (the rate at which banks lend to each other) and subtract the 3-month t-bill rate (the rate at which the government funds its short term borrowings.)
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
But stocks are rallying now!
from Zero Hedge:
And so the double dip confirmation resumes, with the Richmond Fed printing at -10, the lowest since June 2009, well below consensus of -5, a collapse from June's -1, and the lowest since June 2009. From the report: "In August, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — declined nine points to -10 from July's reading of -1. Among the index's components, shipments lost sixteen points to -17, and new orders dropped six points to finish at -11, while the jobs index inched down three points to 1." And more: "Other indicators also suggested additional softening. The index for capacity utilization declined eight points to -14 and the backlogs of orders fell seven points to end at -25. Additionally, the delivery times index moved down twelve points to end at -4, while our gauges for inventories were virtually unchanged in August. The finished goods inventory index held steady at 17 in August, while the raw materials inventories index added one point to finish at 19." And the final nail in the economic coffin was New Home Sales which came at 298K, down from 312K upward revised prior, and missing the consensus of 310k: the lowest in 5 months. "Housing data over the past three months indicates that there is little appetite in the consumer sector to take on the risk of purchasing a home at a time when prices are likely to decline further,’’ says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas. As Bank Of America (RIP) said yesterday, one false word out of Beranke on Friday, and we will see what could possibly be the most epic market crash ever. For those wondering why stocks surged on this horrible news: look no further than the central planners in the Marriner Eccles building who are now expected to do "the right thing" for stocks.
If true, this would be an unprecedented market manipulation by the Fed. There is no free market left!
excerpt from Phoenix Capital Research via Zero Hedge:
Monday, August 22, 2011
Is it any wonder that stocks have stagnated today?
(Reuters) - Consumer confidence has fallen further after weeks of intensified economic concerns and broad stock market declines, and Conference Board data due later this month could be even weaker than current projections suggest, Consumer Edge Research said on Monday.
Readings from high, middle and low-income consumers all deteriorated sharply, due mainly to dramatic declines in outlook, the independent equity research firm said.
The firm's Consumer Economic Index is now at 45.4, down 10 percentage points from July and down 1.5 points from the 46.9 level it reported on August 10. Two days after that report, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary August reading showed that U.S. consumer sentiment had fallen to its lowest point since May 1980.
The 45.4 reading is the lowest since Consumer Edge Research began its index in March 2010.
Consumer Edge Research forecast that the Conference Board's full-month Consumer Confidence Index would deteriorate 8 to 10 percentage points from an unadjusted 59.5 in July when its report is issued on August 30.
As of Friday, consensus was calling for a 2.5 percentage point decline, "so we believe there is downside risk to current expectations," Consumer Edge Research said.