This Stock Market Will Eat You!

I thought this was an interesting perspective today by MN Gordon at Economic Prism:

"At the moment, we struggle to find a time when the outlook for future stock market returns has ever been shoddier.  Make of it what you will.  Do what you want.  Chase shares of Tesla higher, if that’s what makes you happy.

"Just recognize you’re merely drawing lots.  This stock market will eat you soon enough."

Stocks Crash Into Red When Fed Hints At Less Money Creation

After being up more than 500 points today, the Dow and the S&P both crashed into the red today after the Fed hinted at an end to its "facilities" of creating new money. Wow!

Stocks Rise 500+ On Horrible Economic News

Stocks Leap As Real Estate Market Jumps

Meanwhile, another detail not included in this headline was that mortgage defaults are skyrocketing! So much for the health of the housing market!

But the Dow closed over 500 points today!

The Economy Is Tanking, So BUY STOCKS!

Dow was up nearly 300 points today! It's a good thing stocks were higher, or I would have thought that the economy was tanking! Just look at the real news in this headline on Marketwatch!

Stock Bubble Continues It's Rise

Fortunately, however, China has shown some interest in buying agricultural commodities, so perhaps that's the reason stocks have risen today. At least global trade shows some positive signs.

Stocks Are Oblivious to 46 Million Job Losses!

It's a good thing that stocks ignored this news, or we might have thought something was wrong with the economy today!

Dow Posts 200 Point Gain on More Dreadful News

Where's the Logic in This?

This morning, these are the main headlines for economic news:

2.4 Million Americans Lost Their Jobs In the Past Week

1.6 Million Homeowners Defaulted On Their Mortgages In April

The Dow Rose At Open After Being Down All Night

Go Figure! 

Fiscal Disaster This Way Comes!

I was shocked to see this headline just minutes ago!

Let's do the math on that! $1 trillion for one month X 12 months equals $12 trillion of spending for the year!
Even the deficit looks like a coming disaster! $738 billion for one month X 12 months equals a prospective deficit of $8.856 trillion of new debt for one year! That's more than 6 times the previous annual record! That ensures an eventual disaster!
Is is any wonder that the Dow futures are down 650 points as I post this?
And yet House Democrats are expected to pass another stimulus package today for an additional $3 trillion of spending! It guarantees a fiscal calamity!

Don't Try Telling Stock Traders This!

This article on Marketwatch today suggests that the economic rebound will not be a v-shaped recovery, but don't tell that to stock market traders today. After being down 200 points, the Dow has gone positive for the day.

Dow Rises 300 Points on Awful News

These two headlines from the business news website Cheddar this morning express the sentiment that these are troubling times despite that markets are dismissive of risk.

Our Contrarian Market -- In Two Headlines

Both of these articles are on Marketwatch this afternoon. Something seems a little askew and contrary between markets and reality. 

Stocks Soar On Nothing But Hope

These two stories were the major ones today. Just the hope of a cure for the COVID-19 coronavirus sent the Dow to a close up more than 700 points, despite that the manufacturer of the hoped-for cure, Gilead, indicated that data is not yet sufficient to expect a cure.

Meanwhile, the market ignored economic bad news today that is the worst since World War II:

Interestingly, Mark Hulbert Agrees

Hulbert expects the bottom in August of this year, and he summarizes in his article this way:
"When the bear market does finally hit its low, you are unlikely to even be asking whether the bear has breathed his last. You’re more likely at that point to have given up on equities altogether, throwing in the towel and cautioning anyone who would listen that any rally attempt is nothing but a bear-market trap to lure gullible bulls."

Top-Notch Investor Says Worst Is Yet to Come for Covid-19

In an article today on Marketwatch, investor Mark Spitznagel tells us that things are going to get much worse for stocks due to the coronavirus. He should know, since he recently achieved a 4,144% return in the month of March. He clearly stated also that the stock market is in a bubble, and that if the Covid-19 pandemic doesn't pop the bubble, something else WILL.
Look out beloooow!

If This Isn't a Bubble, What Is?

One of the attributes of a financial bubble is that they are never recognized as such until AFTER they pop!
So when will this one pop? Predicting the future is for prophets (with a "ph"), not profits (with an "f"). The important thing is to have an exit strategy, not to predict a "when will it happen" future.

Is An Economic Crisis Imminent?

The answer I would reply for the above question is that I don't know. I hope not! The stock market of the past few days suggests not! But based upon this article by Michael Snyder, perhaps so. He makes a good case on his website .here
Of the items Mr. Synder elucidated, here are a few that startled me:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the probability that a recession will happen within the next 12 months is now the highest that it has been since the last financial crisis. 
Major U.S. retailers continue to shut down more stores, and we have continued to stay on a pace that would break the all-time record for sThe total number of bankruptcy filings in the United States has been steadily shooting uptore closings in a single year.

For the complete list, I recommend Mr. Synder's entire article. 

Treasury Yield Inversion Signals Recession

is this why the Dow is down 600+ points this morning? That's about 100 points more than the rise is stocks at their peak yesterday. Look out, because trouble is coming!
This treasury yield curve inversion is one of the most accurate recession signals in history! It hasn't been wrong once in the past half century! This is a huge red flag!

A Bubble Defined!

If this headline doesn't describe a bubble, I don't know what does! This is the very definition and description of a bubble. It's just a question of time when it pops!