Showing posts with label Open Interest. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Open Interest. Show all posts

Monday, March 17, 2008

Soybean Prices Straddle Settlement Line on Solid Volume

Soybean prices have been the most active of the grains overnight, with soybean trading volume matching that of corn. This is remarkable, given than corn Open Interest is nearly twice that of soybeans. If soybean meal and soybean oil are also counted, the Open Interest of the entire soybean complex would roughly equal that of corn, and the volume would probably be greater.

Soybean futures appear to be the favorite grain of traders for the time being, even though prices overnight have straddled the flat line of Friday's settlement price. Trading this chart could be very profitable, given the smooth, sine wave pattern that is seen on these charts. However, taking the trade overnight also carries higher risks because the bid/ask spread is significantly wider. I usually don't trade overnight, because the risk is higher, volume tends to be lower, and profits are more spotty.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange reports this morning pre-market that much of the activity is due to the Bear Sterns saga and net fund long liquidation, so further softening of soybean prices may be in the offing during the day session. This would be especially true if oil and gold prices continue to soften.

In a fascinating science article related to the health benefits of soybeans, a recent study is indicating that eating soybeans may impede the growth of prostate cancer. Eat your soybeans, men!
Here is the article:

Soybean, Male Sex and Cancer

Volume for wheat has been weak overnight, with the price moving modestly higher.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Change Contracts Tonight

I change my contract months when the added total of Open Interest plus Volume for a given contract becomes greater than the front month contract. It appears that this condition will likely occur today.

[OI(n) +V(n) > OI(f) + V(f)], where:
OI - Open Interest
V - Volume
n - new month
f - front month

If I am forced to make a choice when it is a close call, I will usually trade the contract month with the greatest volume. Volume, for me, represents liquidity!