Thursday, March 28, 2013

Morose Chicago PMI -- Actual Screen Capture

As Chicago PMI Crumbles, Stocks Reach New Record Highs

More On Grain Forecasts, Supplies

Corn futures plunged the exchange limit in Chicago, with soybean and wheat prices falling too, after the US said that its stocks of all three crops were larger than had been thought, easing concerns over tight supplies.
The US Department of Agriculture added to ideas of an easing in the corn supply squeeze by pegging domestic sowings of the grain at 97.3m acres, a little above market expectations, and the largest area since 1936.
The USDA said that US corn inventories as of the beginning of the month had fallen to 5.40bn bushels, down some 600m bushels year on year, but well above the figure that investors had expected following last year's drought-hit harvest.

Grains Get Creamed Following USDA Report

Corn is limit down, wiping out all of March gains in ten minutes. Soybeans and wheat are also down sharply. Corn and wheat are both down more than 5% in the past few minutes. I was fortunate to get fills without a loss!
from Bloomberg:
U.S. farmers will sow fewer acres with soybeans this year, the government said, surprising analysts who were expecting a gain. Corn will get the most acreage since 1936, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
About 77.126 million acres will be sown with soybeans, down 0.1 percent from 77.198 million a year ago, the USDA said today in a report based on a survey of farmers. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 78.351 million. Corn acreage will reach 97.282 million, up from 97.155 million last year, the agency said. The average analyst estimate was 97.339 million.
Soybean plantings fell in Minnesota, the third-biggest grower, and in every Great Plains state except North Dakota, offsetting increases in Iowa and Illinois, the two top producers. Prices for corn and soybeans are up this year, making the crops attractive for farmers who hope to replenish stockpiles after drought curbed production last year.
“If you have good yields, corn and beans are the best cash crops,” Mike Zuzolo, the president of Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting in Lafayette, Indiana, said in a telephone interview. “The drought fears are being pulled out now as we get more moisture across the U.S.”

Futures Daily for March 28, 2013

Today's big movers are cocoa, cotton (both bullish), and corn (bearish).

Cotton Climbing Again

Stocks Reach New Highs Even As Economic Data Continues Weak

Q4 GDP was revised slightly higher this morning, but was worse than expected, coming in at .37%. Initial claims for unemployment was disappointing also, with a rise this week. Both are being dismissed, and stocks are higher.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Strained Relations

Monday, March 25, 2013

Futures Daily for March 25, 2013

Reversals in nearly all of Friday's calls, mostly due to circumstances in Europe. This is strong evidence of the interconnectedness of the financial markets, and especially of the influence of easy QE money from the Fed and other central bankers.