Saturday, December 23, 2017

Fuzzy Math

The US today has 95.4 million American adults not in the workforce. That's about 40% of the adult population. That's more than the number of adults working and paying taxes! But the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that we have only 4.1% unemployment.
Screen capture from the BLS' own website:

Someone is lying and doctoring the data!

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Smart Money Quietly Exiting the Market

A similar phenomenon occurred during the spring of 2017, but no stock sell-off occurred. Historically, such smart money sell-offs are a bad omen.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Stock Valuations Continue to Rise to New Highs

This image of a margin-adjusted CAPE, provided by Hussman Funds, shows that stocks continue to reach new highs of excessive valuation.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Still Another Record High

"Oh, but this time is different," they say. Nope! That language is actually an expression of a bubble mentality! It is, itself, proof of a bubble. And every bubble in history has ultimately burst. There has yet to be an exception. This one will too!

Thursday, October 5, 2017

This Bubble Gonna Burst

Stocks Straight Up Since Mid August

Despite an upwardly-revised GDP forecast, the overall economic data hasn't improved noticeably. This looks more and more bubbly each day. The S&P 500 has closed higher 26 of the past 32 days. We have seen 43 new all-time record highs this year.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

One More Can-Kicking!

Friday, September 8, 2017

Crude Gets Clobbered

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Bullish Bonds Spell Worry

Bonds don't rise this sharply, and interest rates plunge similarly, unless there are concerns in the financial markets. Note the last candle at the far right. That sharp buying binge for bonds is indicative of grave worry in the financial markets because investors are running for cover by buying bonds, which they consider to be the safest investment available.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

End-Of-Month Rally for Corn

So is this just a temporary situation, a short-covering rally, a dead cat bounce, or has Harvey created a corn supply crisis? Stay tuned!

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Cliff-Diving Corn

I'm amazed this morning that even with the plunging price of corn over the past two months, the price of corn is down sharply today also. Here is today's chart:

And here is the trend chart over the past two months:

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Morose Economic Data Sends Stocks Tumbling

The Dow was down 251 points with just minutes left in the trading session today.

Monday, August 14, 2017

Sniff, Sniff! Smells Like a Bubble to Me!

This headline from Marketwatch today sure smells like a classic bubble!

Thursday, August 10, 2017

War Drums? Imagine The Real Thing!

If you think today's stock market plunge was bad, imagine what would happen if war actually happened! We wiped out about a month's worth of gains today!

Thursday, August 3, 2017

Sure Looks Like a BUbble

This image, from Dr. John Hussman's weekly market analysis, suggests that this stock market bubble is just getting bigger and bigger. The Dow finished up 9 days in a row today, even though it was already at record highs. Of course, the nature of a bubble is that the vast majority of market participants don't recognize it as such. If they did, extreme prices wouldn't be moving from one extreme to even greater ones.
In the image, the red line is the calculation of a log-period bubble base on the formulas of Dr. Didier Sornette. This bubble matches his calculations perfectly. It is a flawless example of a financial bubble.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Corn Prices Crushed

Corn prices today dropped below support to multi-month lows. These are the lowest prices of this year!

Friday, June 16, 2017

Friday, June 9, 2017

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Debt Disaster Coming

Monday, May 15, 2017

Economic Data Stalls As S&P Continues Near Record Highs

How long can this continue? There seems to be a dismissiveness on Wall St of the economic data, even as the S&P 500 continues near a new record high this morning. Even the Fed's own data is showing weakness! This divergence will eventually close, and when it does, history suggests that it will be UG-LY!