Wednesday, September 16, 2020

If Record High Stocks and a "Lost Decade" Aren't the Definition of a Bubble, What Is?

 This article this morning on Marketwatch includes an interview with Tony James of the Blackstone private equity group. In it, he mentions some consequences which may soon occur if Joe Biden is elected president just weeks from now. 


 The article states that, "James said higher taxes and stepped-up regulation, which are expected if former Vice President Joe Biden wins the White House in November, will also lead to greater costs and lower profits, which could take the wind out of the stock market." 

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Dow Plunges 700-800 Points

 


Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Stocks Soar 450 Points Even As US Debt Exceeds GDP

 It's hard to believe that this is news that would lead stocks to rally to a fresh new all-time record high, but it has. The Wall St Journal today has an article with the below headline:

The Wall St Journal says that, "U.S. government debt is on track to exceed the size of the economy for the 12 months ended Sept. 30, a milestone not hit since World War II." The US is taking on a staggering amount of debt this year, and the total is more than the entire amount of GDP for the year! This is a calamity in the making!

Tuesday, September 1, 2020

Market Pros Expect a Crash? How Dare They!

 In an article on Marketwatch today, Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz’s chief economic adviser, explains that “...the seemingly endless rally… gives the impression that prices are endorsed and supported by the entire professional investment community.... After all, "he continues, "despite the vocal concerns over valuations having split away from underlying corporate and economic fundamentals, few fund managers have been willing to challenge the market by placing outright shorts. “


 

Monday, August 24, 2020

Stocks Reach New Record Highs Even As Corporate Bankruptcies Soar

 

Financial analyst Daniel Lacalle today shares the following insight:

"One of the most alarming facts about this crisis is the pace at which bankruptcies are rising. Despite an $11 trillion liquidity injection and government aid in 2020, stocks and bonds at all-time highs and sovereign as well as corporate yields at all-time lows, companies are going bust at the fastest pace since the Great Depression. Why? Because a solvency crisis cannot be disguised by liquidity."

Sunday, August 23, 2020

Are We At a "Dire Turning Point"?

 An article today on The Atlantic website asked an important and valid question. Are we reaching a "dire turning point" that could send the economy into collapse? 


Friday, August 21, 2020

Stock-Market "Disconnect" From Reality!

The Wall Street Journal today has an article the suggests that the stock market is "disconnected" from reality. Despite this, the Dow is up 200 points and the S&P500 index is at a new all-time record high! This bubble just gets bigger and bigger.

Thursday, August 20, 2020

Stocks Rise Despite Dreadful Economic News!

This headline on CNBC today seems to summarize well the risk! Ironically, stocks have been modestly HIGHER all day despite this news! 

 First time claims for state unemployment benefits rose above 1 million again, a sign to some economists that the economy’s rebound could be decelerating.

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Jim Cramer Tells Us Not to Be Fooled By This Market!

 Jim Cramer told us today on Marketwatch not to be fooled by new market highs! He warns us that despite a new high for the S&P 500 index, the economy really isn't as strong as that new high would imply. "‘The S&P’s new highs are a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing about the hardship of millions of people on food stamps, or the millions about to be fired from service jobs, or the homeless, or the people who are just huddled at home waiting for the vaccine..." he says. 


Tuesday, August 18, 2020

 A Washington Post article today suggests that stocks are "divorced from reality" because the economy "trails behind" while stock hit new record highs. 


Monday, August 17, 2020

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Center for Disease Control Predicts "Worst Fall Ever"!

 

Dow Has Best 100 Days While GDP Drops 32.9%! What?

 

Someone needs to tell this market that it needs a dose of reality! In Q2, US GDP dropped 32.9%, but the stock market ROSE the most since 1933. 

Market Continues to Ignore Reality

 “Never before have I seen a market so highly valued in the face of overwhelming uncertainty,” says James Montier on Marketwatch today.

 

Monday, August 3, 2020

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Welfare or.... Collapse?

An article on Marketwatch today suggests that Washington must ramp up still more stimulus spending, or... the economy and the stock market will "collapse":



Friday, July 17, 2020

This Stock Market Will Eat You!

I thought this was an interesting perspective today by MN Gordon at Economic Prism:
"At the moment, we struggle to find a time when the outlook for future stock market returns has ever been shoddier.  Make of it what you will.  Do what you want.  Chase shares of Tesla higher, if that’s what makes you happy.
"Just recognize you’re merely drawing lots.  This stock market will eat you soon enough."

Monday, July 13, 2020

Stocks Crash Into Red When Fed Hints At Less Money Creation


After being up more than 500 points today, the Dow and the S&P both crashed into the red today after the Fed hinted at an end to its "facilities" of creating new money. Wow!

Stocks Rise 500+ On Horrible Economic News


Thursday, July 2, 2020

Stocks Soar As Covid-19-Soars Also! Where's the Logic?

Now where's the logic in this headline? It doesn't make any sense!

There was some good jobs-related news today, but even that has been called into question.

Monday, June 29, 2020

Stocks Leap As Real Estate Market Jumps

Meanwhile, another detail not included in this headline was that mortgage defaults are skyrocketing! So much for the health of the housing market!

But the Dow closed over 500 points today!

Thursday, June 25, 2020

The Economy Is Tanking, So BUY STOCKS!

Dow was up nearly 300 points today! It's a good thing stocks were higher, or I would have thought that the economy was tanking! Just look at the real news in this headline on Marketwatch!

Monday, June 22, 2020

Stocks Rise As Housing Market Collapses

It's a good thing stocks are rising, or I would have thought the economy was collapsing!




Friday, June 19, 2020

Stock Bubble Continues It's Rise

Fortunately, however, China has shown some interest in buying agricultural commodities, so perhaps that's the reason stocks have risen today. At least global trade shows some positive signs.

Thursday, June 18, 2020

Stocks Are Oblivious to 46 Million Job Losses!

It's a good thing that stocks ignored this news, or we might have thought something was wrong with the economy today!

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Billionaire Investor Calls Bubble Top!


On Marketwatch today:
"/Jeremy/ Grantham painted a very dire picture of the investment landscape in the U.S., suggesting that rampant trading by out-of-work investors and speculative fervor... may be the most bubblicious he’s seen in his storied career."

Thursday, June 11, 2020

Dow Crashes 1800+ Points

Disaster this way comes!


Wednesday, June 10, 2020

More Monetary Madness

Exploding deficit spending:

The Fed supports asset bubbles:
 Stocks keep going higher and higher into bubble territory, while the real economy tanks:


Thursday, June 4, 2020

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Dow Soars Due to Riots

I guess that riots are a good way to get the market to go up! This headline today from Marketwatch;


It's a Good Thing Stocks Are Up 500 Points, or....

But a reduction in nationwide rioting has taken precedence, as stocks are rallying big-time today!

Friday, May 29, 2020

Fed Figures Staggering Drop In GDP

"...the Atlanta Fed's closely followed GDPNow tracker confirmed this worst case scenario, when the latest model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020 crashed to -51.2% on May 29, down from -40.4% on May 28, which would be the biggest drop on record."

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Dow Soars 553 Points Despite News of Record Decline in Profits

And despite this awful news, stocks soared once again and shrugged off the bad news to reach another high.
I laughed when one commenter at the end of the article said this:
"Who needs an economy when we have central blankity-bankers who can create unlimited "digital dollars" (Powell's term) to artificially boost the stock market bubble via infinite amounts of helicopter money? "

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Where's the Logic in This?

This morning, these are the main headlines for economic news:

2.4 Million Americans Lost Their Jobs In the Past Week

1.6 Million Homeowners Defaulted On Their Mortgages In April

The Dow Rose At Open After Being Down All Night

Go Figure! 

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Debt Is Exploding Worldwide


And this is truly frightening! On the US Debt Clock website, at the top right corner, is a link called Debt Clock Time Machine. This link gives the viewer the amount of US debt for a specific time frame, both in the past and the future. When I clicked on the link to calculate the amount of US debt for the year 2024 -- less than four years from now -- is showing that based upon our current spending, we will have $43.6 trillion of debt. That is truly unsustainable!
Note: Update -- Two days after I posted this figure, it was updated to $44.1 trillion. It's rising even higher!

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Fiscal Disaster This Way Comes!

I was shocked to see this headline just minutes ago!

Let's do the math on that! $1 trillion for one month X 12 months equals $12 trillion of spending for the year!
Even the deficit looks like a coming disaster! $738 billion for one month X 12 months equals a prospective deficit of $8.856 trillion of new debt for one year! That's more than 6 times the previous annual record! That ensures an eventual disaster!
Is is any wonder that the Dow futures are down 650 points as I post this?
And yet House Democrats are expected to pass another stimulus package today for an additional $3 trillion of spending! It guarantees a fiscal calamity!

Monday, May 11, 2020

Don't Try Telling Stock Traders This!

This article on Marketwatch today suggests that the economic rebound will not be a v-shaped recovery, but don't tell that to stock market traders today. After being down 200 points, the Dow has gone positive for the day.


Sunday, May 10, 2020

Reality Only Gets Worse As Unemployment Skyrockets

Over the weekend, "Standard Chartered bank has calculated that adjustments to the headline unemployment rate push the effective number of unemployed to 42 million and the effective UR rate to 25.5%, higher even than the U-6 underemployment rate of 22.8%. Worse, if one treats underemployed in line with the U-6 methodology, the true April unemployment number would rise to an mindblowing 27.5%."
That's ugly beyond description!

Friday, May 8, 2020

A New Record That Is Dismal, At Best

Zero Hedge today has an interesting article that is frightening, even as it is record-setting. Here is the headline:

Here is a brief quote that explains it:
"...there was one especially scary aspect of today's jobs report that has not gotten enough publicity, namely that as BofA writes, the employment to population ratio plunged to a record low, with only 51.3% of the population working. Inversely, this means that in April, 49% of the US population was not working." 

I shudder to think what could be coming! 

Dow Rises 300 Points on Awful News

These two headlines from the business news website Cheddar this morning express the sentiment that these are troubling times despite that markets are dismissive of risk.



Thursday, May 7, 2020

No Rhyme, Reason, or Logic In These Markets

Over the past decade, we have lost all perception of risk or reality in these markets. That doesn't reduce risk; it increases it!