Thursday, December 10, 2015

America's Vanishing Middle Class

The middle class has now, for the first time in US history, dropped below 50%! The middle class is a minority! This has happened in all societies that have embraced collectivism! 
Meanwhile, the tax penalty for not buying Obamacare has surged to nearly $1000! I would be better named if we called it Tyrannycare!

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Wholesale Inventories Weaken GDP Forecast

But stocks are up sharply regardless!

Friday, December 4, 2015

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Bond Market Collapse!

Thank you, Janet Yellen!

Dollar Decimated

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Do These Headlines Look Like a Healthy Economy to You?

Following a relentless barrage of recessionary industrial and manufacturing data, moments ago the Business Roundtable released its latest, fourth quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, and it is an absolute disaster.
According to the report, for the third quarter in a row, CEOs expressed growing caution about the U.S. economy’s near-term prospects and indicated they are moderating their plans for capital investment over the next six months, according to the Business Roundtable fourth quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, released today.

 ISM Manufacturing, a key manufacturing economic index has now fallen below 50 for the first time since Nov 2012, crashing to 48.6! This is the weakest since June 2009.
Today was the weakest PMI report since October 2013 (as ISM Manufacturing also dropped to its lowest since Dec 2012).
The chart above is the percent of stocks in the Gavekal Capital International DM Americas Index that are at least 10% off of their 200-day high. A stunning 55% of DM Americas stocks are at least 10% from their 200-day high while the DM Americas Index is hovering just below its all time high. That's startlingly concerning! 

Canadian GDP plunged 0.5% - its largest Month-over-Month drop since March 2009 and the biggest miss of expectations since Dec 2008. Good thing stocks are up 100 today, or we might have thought the economy was weakening!
Tyrannycare to bring recession

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Stocks to Be Flat in 2016

Monday, November 23, 2015

More Dismal Data

Economic Headlines Weak for Nov 23, 2015

Boy! It's a good thing stocks are up today! This economic news would have told us we are in a recession otherwise!

 National Activity contracted for the 3rd month in a row according to The Chicago Fed's index. Printing -0.04 (missing expectations of +0.05 for the 9th time of the last 11 months), CFNAI has now been below 0 (contraction) for 8 months this year. Under the surface the biggest problem is the collapse in the sales-to-inventories index to cycle lows (contracting 7 of the last 8 months).
US Manufacturing PMI has re-collapsed to 25 month lows as manufacturing employment showed "one of the smallest monthly gains seen over the past five years."
Dominated by an 8.7% collapse in The West, existing home sales fell 3.4% in October MoM (worse than the 2.7% drop expected) to a 5.36mm SAAR.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Major Health Insurance Carrier Cites Obamacare As Cause for Earnings Collapse

from Marketwatch:
UnitedHealth Group Inc. said it expects major losses on its business through the Affordable Care Act's exchanges and will consider withdrawing from them, in the most prominent signal so far of health insurers' struggles with the health law's marketplaces.
The disclosure by the biggest U.S. health insurer, which had just last month sounded optimistic notes about the segment's prospects, will sharply boost worries about the sustainability of the law's signature marketplaces, amid signs that many insurers' losses on the business continue to mount.

Caterpillar Sales Continue Decline

from Zero Hedge:
CAT has now suffered a record 35 months, or nearly 3 years, of consecutive declining annual retail sales - something unprecedented in company history! 

This is significant because Caterpillar is an industrial powerhouse and bellwether. With nearly three years of declining sales, it is a sign that the global economy is not well! 

Baltic Dry Freight Index Matches Record Low

from Zero Hedge:
Having fallen for 20 straight days, crushing the hopes and dreams of the mid-year bounce - and thoroughly breaking down from seasonally positive tendencies - The Baltic Dry Freight Index has collapsed to all-time (back to 1984) record lows.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Baltic Dry Index Revisits Record Low

With no ability to directly manipulate the Baltic Dry Index to 'pretend' everything is awesome, it remains among the best 'real' indicators of the state of the global economy... and it's in the toilet...

Friday, November 13, 2015

Economic Headlines for Nov 13th!

Is it because it's Friday the 13th? Stocks are down nearly 600 points this week. Here are the headlines that may be contributing: