Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Do These Headlines Look Like a Healthy Economy to You?

Following a relentless barrage of recessionary industrial and manufacturing data, moments ago the Business Roundtable released its latest, fourth quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, and it is an absolute disaster.
According to the report, for the third quarter in a row, CEOs expressed growing caution about the U.S. economy’s near-term prospects and indicated they are moderating their plans for capital investment over the next six months, according to the Business Roundtable fourth quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, released today.

 ISM Manufacturing, a key manufacturing economic index has now fallen below 50 for the first time since Nov 2012, crashing to 48.6! This is the weakest since June 2009.
Today was the weakest PMI report since October 2013 (as ISM Manufacturing also dropped to its lowest since Dec 2012).
The chart above is the percent of stocks in the Gavekal Capital International DM Americas Index that are at least 10% off of their 200-day high. A stunning 55% of DM Americas stocks are at least 10% from their 200-day high while the DM Americas Index is hovering just below its all time high. That's startlingly concerning! 

Canadian GDP plunged 0.5% - its largest Month-over-Month drop since March 2009 and the biggest miss of expectations since Dec 2008. Good thing stocks are up 100 today, or we might have thought the economy was weakening!
Tyrannycare to bring recession