Friday, November 8, 2013

Corn, Beans Spike Following USDA Report



Back to Bullish

Following a one-day dip, stocks are rising again. I expected that yesterday's sell-off would be short-lived. We haven't seen this degree of bullishness since the zenith of the 2007 stock market peak.

Household Survey Shows 623,000 Jobs Lost

This Jobs Trend Is Not Good!

The number of Americans NOT working increased last month by nearly 1 million -- 932,000 to be precise. Not good!

This is the labor force participation rate, which represents the percentage of American adults who have jobs. It fell to a fresh 35-year low this morning. This is the worst since 1978!

Unexpectedly-High 204,000 Jobs Created In October

Analysts had been expecting only about half this number. I guess government shut-downs aren't so bad after all!

The Costs of QE

from Bloomberg:

Full article here.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Barely a Blip!

The magnitude of the stock market bubble is now so pronounced that, even with today's 153-point drop in the stock market, it barely registers on this monthly chart.

Here's an enlargement of that top right corner, with that little red blip.

Market Distortions! Strong Data = Stumbling Stocks

The better-than-expected GDP data this morning has sent stocks lower. Here are the headlines:


Fox Business:
Stocks slip on strong economic data? It's a strong sign of a grossly-distorted market when good economic data sends stocks into a tailspin!

Wow! What a Reversal!

The supposedly-good (which isn't, really) GDP news this morning has sent stock scrambling for cover, as the perception that the Fed just might taper after all, has altered the dynamics for a day. I expect it to be short-lived!

Intangibles for Ignoramuses

Minutes ago, the government released it's latest GDP calculation, which came in at a decent 2.8%. It's not robust, but sufficient to get by and kick the can.

But there's a problem. Beginning in August, they changed the calculation methodology. They now add in a nebulous figure for what they are calling "intangibles". INTANGIBLES???? In other words, an amount that can't be calculated or measured. After all, they are "intangible". The word IDIOCIES would be a better word! Idiocies for the economic ignoramuses!

Those "intangibles" caused 2Q GDP to jump from 1.7% to 2.5%, about a 50% increase. Thus, this new figure is probably much closer to 1.85% than the figure that will be publicized in the new media. That is nothing to crow about!

Update #1:
And consumer spending, called PCE (personal consumption expenditure), which constitutes 2/3 of the US economy, was the lowest since 2Q 2011. So the most important element of the US GDP calculation was the lowest in more than 2 1/2 YEARS!

Something is ROTTEN in that apple!

Update #2:

Following this announcement and the ECB rate cut news, stocks have now dropped back to flat.
Wall St must be viewing this GDP figure as the good news that will dampen Fed enthusiasm for money printing. They needn't worry! It won't!

PCE was just a paltry 1.04%! Does that sound like robust consumer spending to you? Yeah, me neither! 

ECB's Unexpected Rate Cut Jars Markets

An hour ago, the European Central Bank President (and former Goldman Sachs Exec) Mario Draghi shocked the financial markets by unexpectedly cutting interest rates. The Euro was butchered, the Dollar leaped, and stock market futures leaped also. Stocks are already at fresh new all-time record highs, just 30 minutes before the NYSE opens for trading this morning.

from the news media:

And so, since the "Euro Area growth risks remain 'on the downside'", 'unemployment remains high', and they have a 'potentially negative economy', stocks are leaping HIGHER and are in new record territory as a result! Is logic, reason, and risk so foreign to these people in the financial markets, that they ignore all reality?


In a Bloomberg article today, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan says that Janet Yellen, Obama's new proposed Fed Chair, was his primary inspiration for monetary and economic policy, presenting him regularly with "various new theories /that/ were coming up and the like in academia". Greenspan was and is so entranced with Yellen's "new theories" and "academia" that he fully endorses his beloved inspiration source as the next Fed Chair. 

But do these people ever consider that the latest fad and "new economic theory" may be WRONG? That it may be incomplete? That it may even be destructive? That it may bring a disaster? Does it ever occur to them that these "theories" may be overly simplistic, or that they may ignore the complexities of millions of people acting independently, and often irrationally (contrary to the latest "theory")? NO! To them, it's just a new toy or tool to use on US and the US economy as their latest guinea pig to experiment on!

"Greenspan's put", as it was called at the time, was likely the primary cause of the housing bubble, and when it collapsed, the housing crisis and resulting Great Recession. But does he show even a hint of remorse for what he did? No!

How many people lost their jobs and therefore livelihoods because of the Greenspan/Yellen penchant for playing with the latest "new economic theory" that resulted in catastrophic collapse? How many people lost their homes? How many people's lives were ruined because of his obsession with the latest economic toy from the ivory towers of academia? Greenspan is still in denial of his mistakes and the resulting chaos he brought. Worse still, he is unapologetic, and thinks that Yellen, his economic playmate in his science experiments, should now be empowered to play with us, by putting their pattycake experimentation on steroids!

We should remember that theory is not proven reality, but Greenspan became so dependent on Yellen presenting him with the latest THEORY -- unproven by time, peer review, or experience -- that he gleefully accepted all those new theories and would often use them to experiment on the US economy!

I've said before that these Fed execs are like a bunch of teenagers who received a chemistry set for Christmas, and are so blind to their power that they keep experimenting with the chemicals until they blow up the house! 

I remember in the 1970s occasionally hearing news stories about teens who received chemistry sets from their parents for Christmas. They would then experiment with them endlessly, creating bigger and bigger explosions, until they would inevitably blow up their parents' house! Eventually, those chemistry sets were deemed too dangerous and were banned from hobby stores and relegated to controlled labs and schools where supervision could be maintained.

Now we have elitist academics who think they are so smart that they should have unlimited power to experiment upon all of us, just like the out-of-control teenager in those former news stories of yesteryear. And these out-of-control central bankers are just as blind to their hubris, as those teenagers who destroyed their parents' homes decades ago.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Bizarre! A Spike in Layoff Announcements Sends Stocks Soaring

Dow futures up 60+ points!