U.S. Trade Deficit Also Disappoints

Thanks to Zero Hedge:

And another piece of bad news for both the US economy and US exporters in particular, even despite prevailing dollar weakness over the past several months: the January US trade deficit printed at $46.3 billion, on imports of $214.1 billion ($10.5 billion higher M/M) and exports of $167.7 billion ($4.4 billion higher). This was the worst number since August 2010. The December deficit was revised to $40.3 billion from $40.6 billion. The December to January increase in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($4.4 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($2.7 billion); capital goods ($2.1 billion); consumer goods ($0.9 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.5 billion). A decrease occurred in other goods ($0.6 billion). The December to January increase in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($3.7 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.3 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). Decreases occurred in consumer goods ($0.6 billion); capital goods ($0.4 billion); and other goods ($0.3 billion). And unfortunately for Wall Street, few are importing US financial innovation any more: "Services exports increased $0.5 billion from December to January." So how much lower does the dollar have to plunge before someone actually starts importing US goods? And an amusing discrepancy: according to the US, the January trade deficit with China was $23.3 billion. According to China, the trade surplus with the US in January was $13.6. Just 100% off between two departments of truth. Due to notable weighting of trade data in GDP calculations, look for another round of downward GDP revisions. The Goldman spin is becoming increasingly difficult at this point. Next up: Next up: Hatzius on the Dudley hotline asking for instructions?

Trade Deficit Explodes, GDP Revisions Sharply Lower

The recent Obama initiative to push exports to double in 5 years has started off, just like all other administration efforts, as an abysmal failure. The June balance of trade plunged to ($49.9) billion, on expectations of ($42.1) billion - a surge of $8 billion compared to May's ($42) billion. This number was the highest since October 2008, and just $28 billion away from the all time record. At least we now know who the mystery "importer", that extracted Europe from the economic abyss, was in the past 3 months. And courtesy of the Current Account equation, what this surge in deficits means is that Q1 GDP will now likely be revised to well under 1.0%! As JPM reported earlier, revision in BEA assumptions on wholesale and non-durable inventory alone will push Q1 GDP from the official 2.4% to 1.3%. Today's data is the last nail in the Q2 GDP number, and according to analyst will take out another 0.4% from the GDP, meaning that when all is said and done, Q2 GDP will come out to sub-1%. And this was in a quarter when the stimulus was still expected to be boosting GDP. We now fully expect that the final reports of Q3 and Q4 GDP, some time in 2011, to be solidly negative, as the economy is now officially contracting once again. In other words, the Double Dip is (even more) official.

Dollar Moves Higher Like Fireworks as Trade Deficit Narrows

This morning's data that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed has provided rocket fuel for the U.S. Dollar. A smaller trade deficit is beneficial for the greenback. Go Dollar!

Proof: Weak Dollar Does Not Improve Trade Deficit!

I highly recommend reading the following newsletter written by John Mauldin, who for the year 2007, was ranked second only to Warren Buffett as the best investment adviser. The attached chart is from his weekly newsletter, and proves that a weak US Dollar does not improve the trade deficit. If you would like to know the real cause, clink on the chart above, or read his newsletter here:

What Are They Thinking?

Read the link to the above newsletter. It will open your eyes to a few things on tax policy. It may even scare you. It did that for me! Great article, John! Great newsletter, too!