Saturday, April 6, 2013

Economic Surprise Indicator Turns Down

from Zero Hedge:
The last two weeks have not been pretty for the 'it's different this time' crowd. Day after day has brough miss after miss in macro-economic data for the US; from PMIs to NFPs, no matter how hard you try, there is not even enough for an 'anecdotal' strategist to pin his BTFD thesis on. Quantitatively, the US macro surprise index has seen its biggest 10-day drop in 10 months, completely reversing all the 'seasonally-adjusted' difference from the 2011 'Deja-Vu' market and macro behavior. So with the first pillar of bullishness (macro data is 'supportive'), it is up to earnings (but but but profitability is at highs) to hold up the market - good luck with that.

Biggest 2-week drop in macro data in 10 months...

is reverting all the 'seasonally adjusted' green shoots that made this time different from last year...

and once again, just for fun, someone explain how the market is not solely dependent upon the Fed for this to occur?

Charts: Bloomberg

Hog Futures Slammed on Weak Demand, Larger Supply

Bad Economic Omen: Crude Slips Into Contango

from Bloomberg News

"Front-month Brent crude settled lower than the second-month contract for the first time since June on concern that slower economic growth will reduce near- term demand.
"'The contango is an indication that the economy is in bad shape and oil demand is really slowing,' said Rich Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist and founder of commodities trading firm Iitrader in Chicago. 'There is probably more downside risk going forward.'”

Friday, April 5, 2013

Stocks Erase All Jobs Announcement-Related Losses

Clearly, the mentality on Wall St is to view this news today as aberration, rather than indication, of economic direction.

The Difference Between Speculation and Investment

"...investment is buying a security at a price that is associated with a reasonable expectation of acceptable long-term returns. Speculation is buying a security in the expectation that its price will advance, with less regard for long-term prospects. Both benefit from solid valuation methods and reliable measures of market action, but investment weighs valuation more strongly, while speculation weighs market action more strongly. The problem for active market participants is to distinguish between investment and speculation in the first place, and then to identify good and bad opportunities to accept such positions." John Hussman, Phd.

Poor Jobs Creation Craters Stocks

Thursday, April 4, 2013

What's Wrong With This Picture?

This picture is a screen cap of the headline on the website of the Wall St Journal overnight. The news out of Europe is AWFUL! SIX straight quarters of economic contraction!

And yet the stock market futures ROSE about 50 points overnight on this news! Stocks continue near all-time highs, having reached fresh all-time record highs in 2 of the 4 previous days! What gives?

The Fed and other central banks are so busy propping up the stock market that they have removed all perception of risk from the market! Market participants routinely disregard all news and data (like this headline), analysis, and risk. They simply don't care any more about the "real" economy, because they are so addicted to easy money from the Fed that the "real economy" has become irrelevant to them. 

Central bankers have created moral hazard, and done so intentionally, to benefit the wealthiest people in Western civilization! We know this because studies have repeatedly shown that the vast majority of stocks are owned by the wealthiest people in our society. So the Fed is engaging in its own stimulus plan to boost the wealth of the already-wealthiest members of civilization! And this stimulus plan has been ongoing now for FIVE YEARS -- NONSTOP!

This is a textbook case of a bubble! But now, Ben Bernanke is not only doing it intentionally, but boasting about it as well!

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

No Saving This One Today!

Stocks Slip On Dour News

Dow down 100 points.

excerpt from the Wall St Journal:
Stocks extended losses after the Institute for Supply Management's reading on the U.S. non-manufacturing sector came in worse than expected—slipping to its lowest level since August 2012—and employment slowed as well.
A disappointing report on private-sector jobs growth for March also cast a pall on Tuesday's optimism. Data compiled by Automatic Data Processing and Moody's Analytics showed an increase of 158,000 jobs on the month, well below the 192,000 expected.

Futures Daily for April 3, 2013