Friday, March 8, 2013

Futures Daily for March 8, 2013

Cocoa soars!

Whew! I Almost Lost Faith In the Fed

I had almost lost faith in the eternal market levitation ability of the Fed, but alas! I needn't have worried. Stocks are rising again! Nothing can keep a good bubble down! The Pollyanna Party continues!

Wholesale Inventories Rise, Sales Plunge

Wholesale sales dropped 0.8% (against an expectation of a 0.1% rise) for the biggest drop in 3 months and one of the lowest since the crisis 'ended'. Wholesale inventory-to-sales ratio rose to its equal highest since mid 2009

Instead of Rally, Market Sells Off Instead

This is the strangest reaction I've ever seen to economic data! Instead of stocks staging a rally, the market has sold off instead. Is it because, in this bizarro world in which bad news is good news because the Fed will continue to supply infinite easy money, or because the jobs created were mostly part-time or people taking multiple jobs, I don't know! But the market has sold off to the flat-line. Perhaps we will see a rally once we reach yesterday's close. Strange world in which up is down, and down is up.

Jobs Surprisingly Robust in Feb

I'm surprised how muted the market reaction has been, however:

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Sugar Leaps Over 3% In One Day

from Bloomberg:
Prices touched 18.81 cents /Thursday/, the highest since Feb. 5, as port congestion threatened to delay shipments from Brazil, the world’s biggest grower and exporter. 

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Economy Dichotomy

Factory Orders Slump

Stocks headed higher during the overnight hours, but have slumped today and are back to flat now.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Stocks Continue Robust Rise

Non-Manufacturing ISM Rises Most In 8 Months

This is good news, and combined with better news out of Europe, stocks are up sharply to all-time record highs today.

Stocks Open At All-Time Record High

Thank you, Fed! No prosperity! Just bubbles! Bubbles Ben!

Monday, March 4, 2013

Not Pretty! Consumer Spending Collapses

Richard Yamarone of Bloomberg TV summarizes:
"In recent weeks C-suite executives in the Bloomberg Orange Book have increasingly cited real disposable personal incomes as a concern. In fact, over the last couple of weeks, no fewer than a dozen consumer related companies made mention of the deterioration in incomes as a risk to business and performances.

"Spending on discretionary items has softened in recent months. Four of our ‘Fab Five’ spending barometers fell or were unchanged in January from December. Comments from the Bloomberg Orange Book suggest further deterioration ahead."

China's RE Bubble Pops; Japan Debt Downgraded

More news weighing down stocks:

From Zero Hedge:
"... the Shanghai Stock Exchange Property Index slumped by a whopping 9.3%, the steepest drop since June 2008, and pushing it down to -11% for the year. The weakness also spread to the broader market, with the Composite closing down 3.65% the biggest drop in months, and now just barely positive, at +0.2%, year to date...
"...a few hours ago Dagong downgraded Japan from A+ to A, with a negative outlook.
"Among other things, Dagong said the Abe administration’s economic policies would 'critically exacerbate the fiscal situation and cannot solve the entrenched problems constraining national wealth creation capability', that Abe's policies will 'critically exacerbate the fiscal situation and cannot solve the entrenched problems constraining national wealth creation capability' and that 'the economy will remain in a "prolonged slump" causing the risk of sovereign credit crisis to rise.'"

And from Societe Generale:
 "Asian stock markets started the week on a sour note, reacting to news of additional measures in mainland China to restrain real estate prices. This was arguably also the main factor driving down the Australian dollar, although the economic news reports this morning were also weak. The main exception to stock market weakness was Japan, where stocks are trading firmer despite a fractionally stronger yen. The relative stability of the yen is noteworthy, given that the proposed new BoJ governor, Mr Kuroda, reiterated in his confirmation hearing his strongly dovish bias, arguing for accelerated and broadened asset purchases.

Sequester Weighs On Stocks

Stocks have been down since the opened last night, with the US sequester and European debt weighing prospects.