Weather Front and Center

I have growing concerns that the grain-growing regions of the United States are too wet. This daily chart for soybeans shows a Bollinger Band break-out yesterday, a key sign of a bullish trend, following two months in a tight trading range. Cool spring weather and wet, rainy conditions are beginning to increase sentiment that a bull market in grains may be starting to build. We are now at a crossroads where it is almost too late to plant some crops, and others are showing signs of the seeds (already in the ground) rotting, requiring replanting or giving up on this season. Even with the resurgence of the Dollar, poor weather may outweigh the strength of the Dollar and push grain prices into a new bull trend.