The grains just can't seem to hold their gains today. I am continuing to trade stock index and treasury futures. There is a tremendous amount of conflicting data in the grains today. Oil prices have dropped following the weekly EIA data, which has a bearish impact on corn and soybeans. However, a worsening stand-off in Argentina between farmers and the socialist government, combined with a cool, wet spring in the grain belt of the United States, would continue to build a somewhat more bullish sentiment. Conflict between data, both fundamentally and technically, tend to result in stagnant prices and low volatility. The daily charts for both corn and soybeans reflect this stagnant sentiment. Above is the daily chart for corn, but the soybean one looks quite similar for the past 60 days. Grain prices are stuck within a narrow range trading scheme for now.
Likewise, the intra-day chart (below) for corn is similarly stagnant. Yesterday's settlement price is the dotted white line, and corn is only one cent away from that price for the moment. It's not even worth trading! Wheat and soybean prices are also struggling to maintain any prices gains today, with prices of all three within six cents of the opening price. With a limit of 70 cents for soybeans, this is hardly even noteworthy. I will continue to monitor activity, but trade stock and treasury futures for the time being. Stocks are solidly higher today, but seem unconvincing, so both long and short trades seem to be in order.
Corn Intra-Day
Soybeans Intra-Day -- Very Ugly to Trade!
The lesson here, of course, is that as a trader, it is always wise to seek out the trades that show good activity that shows some semblance of reliability. Trading charts that are erratic and unpredictable can only be destructive of a trader's account. The futures markets have tremendous power to devastate a trader's account if we take the markets too lightly. Do so at your own peril!
