Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Divergences Form, Prices Collapse

Look at the divergences that formed on these charts. They are depicted in these two charts as heavy red downward-sloping lines in the 2nd and 4th panels of both time frames shown here. The 2nd panel shows bearish divergences on the Klinger Volume indicator, and the 4th panel shows divergences on the MACD. Prices have subsequently collapsed on the Dow! Interestingly, however, while prices have collapsed on the S&P 500 Index and Dow futures, prices have only consolidated on the NASDAQ and S&P 400 Mid-Cap futures. The Dow tends to closely mirror the S&P 500, while the NASDAQ and S&P Mid-Cap also tend to mirror each other. Each of them tend to have distinctive characteristics of their own.

Tick Charts Have Different Values
If you examine the charts closely, readers will also see that I use different tick values on the tick charts for each of them. I do this, adjusting each one from time to time, until the charts become more orderly and smooth. Today, I am using 100 tick charts for the Dow, 50 tick charts for the S&P Mid-Cap, 150 tick charts for the NASDAQ, and 250 tick charts for the S&P 500. For some reason, the S&P 500 is the most difficult to find adjustments that result in smooth charts, even though it is by far the most liquid of the stock index futures. I suspect that this may be because the S&P 500 has more trading activity by amateurs, but I really have no proof or evidence for this opinion. I just know that there is more erratic price behavior (market noise) for the S&P 500 futures. These tick values may all change tomorrow. I examine and adjust them constantly, sometimes more than once a day.