Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Another Confirmed Correction or Downtrend

This daily chart (above) is a futures vehicle that I discovered a few weeks ago and have been following. It is the Rogers International TRAKRS futures. Like the GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) futures, it tracks a broad index of 35 commodity futures balanced in energy, agriculture, and metals. However, unlike the GSCI futures, the Rogers TRAKRS futures are quite liquid, having Open Interest of more than 250,000 contracts. That's very liquid! There are probably fewer than a dozen commodity futures that have that volume of liquidity. Hence, it may be a good one to trade on the longer-term charts. It also appears to have broader commodity components than its GSCI sister. The GSCI contains 24 futures and is oriented toward the most liquid ones, but is heavily weighted toward energy-related, and especially crude oil (more than 50% of the total index, the last time I checked), commodities. Hence, the GSCI futures (daily chart below), with the collapse in the price of crude oil, show a stronger downward slope at this time, than the Rogers Intl TRAKRS futures. I would like to find an ETF that trades the inverse (ie., takes a short position) of the GSCI, but I am not aware of one at this time. Buying such an ETF would be a good way to short crude oil. (I am aware of the DUG ETF, but DUG shorts oil companies, not the futures.)