Friday, December 5, 2008

Those Poor Grain Farmers!

The global asset sell-off is causing grain prices to plummet. Funds are liquidating grain futures and open interest is plunging. Note the intraday corn chart above and the daily chart below. The same speculators that were blamed for driving commodity prices higher six months ago are getting no credit or thanks for selling and driving prices to excessively-low levels now. Where's the justice?

Prices have now dropped so low that prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat have dropped below farmer's production costs. The high cost of fertilizer, fuel, seed, etc. will force many farmers to make the decision to leave some of their land fallow and claim a government check instead. With grain in storage at record multi-decade low levels already, these low prices may influence many growers to cut production in the 2009 growing season. This will undoubtedly lead to not only higher prices, but quite possibly food shortages in some parts of the world. It will become more expensive to eat!