Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Stocks: "I Want to Believe"

This chart today reminds me of the poster than Fox Mulder, the protagonist from the television series "The X Files", had placed on the wall in his office. Stock index futures are higher this morning, but not yet showing strong conviction in the still steeping, stagnating economic outlook. Stock market bulls want to believe that we can see a rally, but despite higher prices today, it is difficult to find good reasons to buy and drive prices significantly higher. A guarded, but positive outlook for GE's finance company this morning, and hope for a reworked plan to bail out automakers, appear to be market drivers today.

P/E ratios for the S&P 500 remain too high once next year's plunging earnings are taken into account. Analyst estimates continue to be revised downward, and as they do, current P/E's will appear to make the market appear still high-priced. Hard to believe, but just wait, watch, and see.