Monday, July 28, 2008

Grains Turn Negative

This is the chart that genuinely surprises me today. Grain trading is mixed this morning, with wheat having sold off significantly, soybeans relatively flat (having sold off of overnight trading levels), and corn slightly higher. However, this chart is the composite of the three grains combined with sugar, and it shows significant selling activity this morning. This chart is for the DBA ETF. The large spike at the start represents overnight price activity before the stock exchanges opened this morning. This sell-off is surprising to me, especially considering that crude oil has risen significantly today. Corn, soybeans and sugar are considered to be biofuels, so they tend to track the price of crude oil somewhat. Not today! This sell-off is occurring despite some of the best grains analysts in the business having forecasted higher grain prices across the board today. The futures markets never cease to catch me by surprise.