Sunday, July 27, 2008

Grains Consolidating for New Thrust to Higher Prices?

Over the past few days, after significant downward price pressure and a downtrend for the past several weeks in the grains complex, technical signs are building that prices are consolidating and commercial hedgers are using the price collapse to buy at bargain prices. Corn, soybeans, and wheat, after moving higher on Friday, are also up significantly in Sunday evening trading as well. Heat stress on the plants due to hot weather is being attributed.

It certainly appears that the downtrend in grains is over. Higher prices are probably forthcoming, and unless the August USDA crop report nest week shows that crop yields have unexpectedly increased, then we have likely already seen the lowest grain prices for the year. Corn declined more than 29% from its high June 27th. Imagine that! A decline of nearly 30% didn't even gain mention in the news media headlines! The daily chart for soybeans is shown below. The chart for wheat has already begun a new uptrend.