Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Commodity Downtrend Continues, But Congress Still in Stupor

While the U.S. Congress is obsessed with blaming speculators for the recent price spikes in commodities, the reality is that commodities are in a significant downtrend. The train left the station weeks ago, and Congress is behind the curve as usual. They have been left in the dust. Ironically, I find it to be the paragon of egotism that Congressional leaders are trying to take credit for lower prices in commodities. Senate Majority Leader Reid tries to blame speculators for the high prices, while simultaneously trying to take credit when prices fall by claiming that it was the threat of action against them that spooked them and brought prices off their highs. If speculators caused the run-up in prices, then shouldn't they also be given at least some credit for the price collapse? These ego-driven political madmen try to blame others for inflation, while taking credit to themselves for price deflation. What absolute idiocy! The truth is just the opposite!

It was their policies that devalued the Dollar, their policies that banned domestic energy production, their policies that created food-to-fuel mandates that drove food commodities higher, etc. It was Congressman Reid's (and his cohorts') policies that created the inflationary mushroom cloud. It was the high prices themselves that have eroded demand so severely that Americans are being forced to cut back on driving -- and even eating -- so much that prices have now declined. Of course, a few of Senator's Reid's friends have admitted, in a few moments of shocking and shameful honesty, that this was their strategy for controlling prices all along. They admittedly wanted high prices to force painful prices on Americans so they would cut back. Americans, abandoned by their elected representatives, have brought down prices by cutting their consumption of all sorts of food and energy commodities. Americans have brought down the demand side of the equation through sheer pain, but without the help of their own Congress.

These guys are close cousins of Hugo Chavez, and don't even know it. Perhaps it's the in-breeding that makes such egotism so pervasive. Permanent brain damage seems to be one result. The saddest thing about all this is that the downtrend will be only temporary because Congress is doing nothing about the supply side of the equation. The inflationary and destructive policies remain in place! Thus, because the supply remains in dubious question, prices will inevitably spike much higher again in the not-too-distant future. This price respite will only be temporary unless Congress wakes up! Congress remains asleep at the switch despite the fact that the train left the station long ago. They were too blinded by their lust for power and party loyalties to bother hopping on at the station.
This daily chart for the Rogers International Commodity Index futures is one of the more liquid broad-spectrum commodity indexes, and the trend is still very clearly down. I don't day trade this one, but it is very liquid and excellent for trading over the longer-term on the daily charts. It's noteworthy that today, we have breached the price support level established with the lows of May and early June. With the gap downward and the two candles on July 8th and 9th, traders were making a quick exit as prices then spiked upward one last time to touch the upper Bollinger Band on July 11th. It was straight down from there!