Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Seeeeeell Crude!

This sell-off is very likely due to profit-taking rather than a change in the outlook of the fundamentals. In fact, the fundamentals data, even over the weekend (attacks on Nigeria oil production, for example), is very supportive of high crude oil prices. It may be short-lived, lasting until crude oil looks cheap and buying steps into the markets again. But for now... SELL!

I've a hunch this could impact corn and soybean prices when the open for the day session today. This could make the soybean trading session particularly interesting today, given the breakdown in talks between the farmers and government of Argentina over the weekend.

Although the price of wheat often moves somewhat in sympathy with corn and soybeans, the deepening drought in Australia should start to put a more solid floor under the price of wheat. I don't expect as much impact today on the price of wheat from this crude oil sell-off.