Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Grains Move Lower, Bucking Bullish USDA Data

Following the weaker price of oil, grains have moved lower overnight, with corn taking the worst drubbing in terms of a percentage decline in prices. This is somewhat surprising, given that the weekly crop data released yesterday afternoon by the USDA was bullish for both corn and soybean prices. This could set us up for a more bullish price surge later.

The USDA announced that saturated soil conditions have held corn seedling emergence to a frightening deficit of 46 points at this point in the planting season. Likewise, soybeans emergence is a very soft 12% so far, with soybean planting at only 52% of normal for this point in the season. Often, farmers will plant soybeans following the wheat harvest, but cooler and wetter soil conditions are delaying the wheat as well, reducing the probability of double-cropping this year. All this tends to be supportive of prices, but heavy selling in the crude oil markets is having a spill-over effect in grains.