Friday, April 4, 2008

Jobs: Down 80,000

Unemployment rate for March rose to 5.1% from 4.8% Furthermore, the higher-than-expected new claims reported yesterday were not yet included in this number, suggesting that I may get worse. The reported 80,000 job loss was larger than expected.

The job losses for January and February were also revised downward by an additional 67,000 jobs, and the household survey shows a stunning job loss even greater than the headline -- a 434,000 loss. The main survey tends to omit small businesses, while the household survey captures this aspect of the job market. This makes the household survey tend toward greater accuracy.

This is a poor jobs report. If there is any good news here, it is that that market expects that the worst in the economic news may be past, and there is the sentiment that the Fed has gotten ahead of the curve and things will soon be on the mend.