Thursday, January 3, 2008

Many erratic movements today


Here is the 30 tick chart for the same period as the chart in my last post. Please open the chart in a separate window to see it better.

I have marked the turning points in the day according to the Klinger volume indicator. It remains an incredible phenomena to me that these turn signals appear nearly each time shortly before prices change directions. Could I ask for a more effective indicator? Look also at the blue and magenta line in the subgraph, called the Hull Moving Average. It changes direction shortly after the Klinger indicator. The Hull (or other) Moving Average is a confirmation signal for entry into a position. But with healthy profits early in the day, and difficult trading conditions, I chose to sit out the market through the remainder of the day. Even with repeated new highs, I'm glad I did.

Some of these signals would be winners, but many would also be losers. This kind of day can eat up a trader's equity very quickly. I gave up trying to trade this market today because it became so erratic. Ironically, new soybean price highs were reached two or three times. Timing is critical!

How ironic that my most profitable trade by far was a short trade on a day when soybeans closed up 19 cents for the day! Figure that out, will you!