Friday, January 4, 2008

Better to trade wheat today


I haven't traded today, but wheat, after hitting lock limit up two days in a row, nearly went lock limit down today. This is much better to make money, when prices are fluctuating with better order. If soybeans are erratic, as they are today, I look for another financial instrument to trade. If I had placed trades today, it may have been wheat. Note, by the way, that the Klinger volume indicator is showing net purchasing of wheat, even as prices continue their decline, which presages a price reversal coming.

Gold is another favorite of mine, as are the 10-year U.S. government treasuries. I look for anything that shows strong momentum without signs of that momentum waning.

I use the Klinger + ATR volume indicator, developed by a very astute MD and trader here in Utah, as well as the Bollinger Squeeze indicator, and the Bollinger Bands themselves, to help me judge when momentum -- volatility -- dissipates. Here is the Tradestation forum where the developer explains the Klinger + ATR indicator in great detail and with many fantastic charts:

Klinger + ATR indicator forum

I would not be at all surprised if, toward the end of the stock markets trading session, a significant stock market sell-off occurs. Smart traders will not want to go into the weekend long on stocks after such melancholy economic news (the U.S. government reported that unemployment rose to 5% this morning), so a last minute sell-off was suggested by Art Cashin. Cashin is one of Wall Street's veterans, and he frequently is asked to comment prior to market open on CNBC. He is always insightful and shows good wisdom through many years of experience. If such a sell-off occurs, I will probably go short the S&P or Russell 2K in the last hour or so of trading.