Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Dec 12: Great day for trading soybeans!


Anyone trading soybeans today should have made at least $1000 per contract traded. What a great day to trade soybeans, as prices moved in only one direction almost the entire day, with only a minor temporary retracement. See the charts for two great trades! Typically, when markets move strongly in one direction, I will NOT take any counter-trend trades that day. Between the two charts shown here (upper one is first trade, lower one is second trade), there was a small retracement during which I was out of the market. Retracements are normal, even during a strong up cycle. Therefore, I have learned to expect them.















Expect a "Rest" in the market


However, after a rise in prices this rapid, it is customary for prices to either pull back somewhat or go flat for a few days. Expect tough trading again for at least the next few days.
The principle is that volatility leads to consolidation, and consolidation leads to volatility. Healthy markets don't go up in a parabolic fashion. We should expect a slight pull-back or consolidation while the market digests these higher, record soybean prices.