Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Roller Coaster Day for Stocks

I'm seeing a new phenomena over the past few weeks. In the past, when the stock market opened, we would see buying at the open that would drive the market higher. Now, over the past several sessions, we are seeing selling at the open instead.

In this chart, prices chopped higher on thin volume in a melt-up overnight, but sold off at the market open. While the buying is thin, the selling is occurring on heavy volume, which is suggestive of fund selling of all kinds (hedge, pension, mutual funds, etc.). The volume has shifted from bullish to bearish, at least temporarily. The same thing has occurred several times in the past few weeks.

There appears to be a change in the wind, and I suspect that it is because the market is anticipating the end of the Fed's quantitative easing program in June. The nearly infinite liquidity that the Fed has provided will soon come to an end -- for the time being. Of course, anything could change by summer. I'll be anxiously awaiting the Fed's policy statement following its meeting at the end of April.