Fed's Strong Correlation to Rising Prices

This week's Stock World Weekly is called "Balancing Act." Here's the Week Ahead section, click here for the full newsletter. - Ilene

Excerpt (Week Ahead Section):
The S&P 500 failed to hold the critical level of 1,333 on Friday and this market is feeling a bit toppy. If the Fed allows QE2 to end in June as planned, the perpetual market prop-up may face some headwinds.
On Saturday, April 9, Phil posted “Investing for Income - Part One.” The article discusses constructing a conservative, low-maintenance portfolio designed to produce consistent income while preserving capital. Our intention is to test- drive a virtual portfolio of $500,000 and see how it performs over time, with the goal of generating $4,000/month income. Of course, part of the challenge is not only to produce income, but also to offset inflationary effects and prevent the erosion of the value of the original investment. Part two will follow in about two weeks.
Inflation and stagflation have been important topics of debate, particularly since the Fed announced the QE2 program last fall, and even more so as prices of commodities have been rising unabated. While Fed apologists make academic arguments that QE shouldn’t cause inflation, many financial commentators disagree. Jason Kaspar, of GoldShark.com, discussed the subject with SWW editor Ilene in email correspondence. Jason wrote, “The real definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply, and according to me, that includes credit as well. The real definition of deflation, conversely, is a decrease in the money supply.
“Logic presupposes that when the money supply increases, the prices of goods will increase. This is generally true. However, the reverse is not always true. An increase in the price of goods does not necessarily mean there has been an increase in the money supply.
“For example, during the collapse of 2008, a tremendous amount of money was vaporized through de-leveraging (among other things). We saw much of this occur in the mortgage market with innumerable foreclosures. When the Treasury instituted its stimulus spending and the Fed helped facilitate this spending through quantitative easing in 2009, the stimulus served only to replace the money that was lost. The Fed bought mortgage backed securities (in QE1) and treasuries from the banks, but instead of lending that money out to individuals, the banks allowed it to build in reserves at the Fed (which renders it useless) or have been investing that money in assets, like food, equities, gold, etc.
“Therefore, even though there is no overall increase in the money supply (M3 has started contracting again recently), some of the QE money has been shifted into specific assets, which are enjoying nominally large price increases. This is the difference between money supply inflation, and price inflation.”
Russ Winter, at Wall Street Examiner, and author of Winter Watch writes, “The following chart says it all (below). The Fed’s aggressive Treasury monetization has been the causa proxima (90-percent correlation) to the pedal-to- the-metal Minsky Meltup in commodities. I suspected this would be the effect but confess I did not believe the Fed and government could be so irrational and stupid as to attempt it, especially with the blowback evident by year end. Though I am one of the most persistent critics of Fed rabble, this exceeded even my worst fears and nightmares. This is what Bernanke refers to as ‘temporary’ inflation. Nor did I anticipate the markets ignoring such clear and present danger either. The transmission of this inflation disease appears to take about six months, which corresponds to the MIT price survey I have been using. It, too, now shows that inflation is in full swing.”
“If the Fed continues its purchases, we can calculate that each new $100 billion of Treasury purchased will add about 5 percent to the commodity index and $7 to oil. It takes four weeks for the Fed to purchase $100 billion in Treasuries. What a game of chicken being played out and right before our eyes! You can sense the collision, flying glass, blood and bones at almost any moment. If the Fed desists or scales down its Treasury buying, the stark trillion dollar question becomes who will buy them?” (The Game Of Chicken: Collision, Blood and Bones, originally posted on the Winter Economic and Market Watch blog, and Russ’s premium service, Russ Winter’s Actionable.)
Lee Adler, editor and publisher of Wall Street Examiner presents another perspective: “The evidence shows that banks are again out of the Treasury buying game. It also shows that they lost money in the first quarter, which is insane considering that their cost of funds is zero. It’s an indication of just how dire the circumstances are. Banks continue to accumulate cash at a frantic rate in their accounts at the Fed. The last time reserves rose this fast was in the midst of the crisis in 2008.
“Although the banks did buy some Treasuries in mid March, they have again stopped buying and reduced their holdings, opting to hold cash at the Fed instead. The banks are pulling cash out of the system and depositing it in their reserve accounts even faster than the Fed is printing it, lately 60% faster. We have to wonder what has them so spooked.
“At the same time, FCBs [foreign central banks] purchases of Treasuries are also backsliding, and are well below the threshold where they need to be to keep the markets stable. These elements essentially neutralize the Fed’s pumping. It may not be enough to send the
markets lower, and in the absence of new Treasury supply, Fed buying should be enough to keep the field tilted in favor of higher prices. April’s bias should be to the upside, but the background drag will be there. Things will get tougher in May when Treasury supply increases, and really tough this summer when the Fed presumably will stop pumping.” (Fed Gets To Skate On Thin Ice In April)
The S&P 500 is near the level where we might be more bullish on a technical basis. However, the low volumes that have characterized this rally, and the artificiality of it, leave us skeptical and cautious going into next week.
Read more: Balancing Act.
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