Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Disappointing Housing Starts -- But At Least It Was Positive

from Fox Business:

U.S. housing starts rose but to a much weaker rate than expected in July, while permits for future home construction fell to their lowest level in more than a year, according to a government report on Tuesday that pointed to a weak housing market.
The Commerce Department
said housing starts rose 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000 units. June's housing starts were revised to show an 8.7% fall, which was previously reported as a 5% drop.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected housing starts to rise to 560,000 units. Compared to July last year, groundbreaking activity was down 7%.
New building permits, which give a sense of future home construction, dropped 3.1% to a 565,000-unit pace last month, the lowest level since May 2009.

from Zero Hedge:
Even as the PPI data came out as expected, both on a MoM (0.2% vs exp 0.2%), and YoY basis (4.2% vs exp 4.2%), from a previous reading of -0.5%, and thus serving as no market moving indicator in either direction, housing starts of 546k came in well below expectations of 560k. And in keeping with tradition, the US government once again revised the prior period data, to make today's print seem like an improvement: the previous reading of 549k was revised to 537k. As the Census Bureau reported, "Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000. This is 1.7 percent (±9.7%)* above the revised June estimate of 537,000, but is 7.0 percent (±7.5%)* below the July 2009 rate of 587,000." Completing the trifecta of economic data, Housing Permits also missed expectations of 580k, coming in at 565k. Far less relevantly, we also find that "privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000. This is 32.8 percent (±6.8%) below the revised June estimate of 874,000 and is 25.4 percent (±7.3%) below the July 2009 rate of 787,000." In other words, houses really are not being built.