Monday, December 15, 2008

Dollar Continues to Fall, Commodities Continue to Rise

At the start of the new week, the Dollar has continued its slide that prominently manifested itself last week, and commodities have continued to rise. The link between the fate of the Dollar and commodity prices should not be underestimated despite denials from some politicians and a few members of the finance industry. Those in denial have a vested interest in keeping the fox in the Dollar henhouse.
Grains have risen with particular strength overnight, and crude oil has continued to build price strength as well, despite weakening demand.
This chart of crude oil overnight is symbolic of the phenomenon that is beginning to emerge, signaling what may be an end to the deflation of the commodity bubble. Note that while this is not the front month contract in this chart, crude oil is now priced at nearly $52/barrel, after reaching a nadir price of about $40.50 only about ten days ago.
I expect weak demand to put a lid on the upside potential for many commodities, but the bottoming process for commodity prices appears to be solidifying. Deflationary pressures won't end soon unless global economics rebound quickly (not a likely scenario, in my humble opinion), but physical commodities have a tendency to form rather firm, flat bottoms. If the Dollar continues to weaken, however, that ugly word "stagflation" will find itslef prominently on the lips of pundits again very soon. Obviously, each commodity has a distinct flavor in the process, but in a general sense, as a class, commodities are showing strong signs that the bottom has been found.