More On Oil Speculation

In a forum that I frequent regarding investments, one reader posted an interesting question:

How do you explain the dollar being down 15-percent while crude has doubled in the past 16-months?

Here is my reply to him:

The answer is glaringly obvious. It is NOT to assume speculators drive prices higher.
All the data show just the opposite. Coincidence is NOT causality. In fact, the recent CFTC data indicate that the speculators were shorting the market, exiting the oil futures, and SUPPRESSING prices. Recent price surges occurred when the speculative shorts were squeezed OUT of the markets. We shouldn't be cursing those guys. We should be THANKING them.
In addition to the devaluation of the dollar, there are various other factors that have also driven the price higher. They amount to a near perfect storm for higher oil prices.
One cause is growing global demand. Just this week, China announced that their importation of one petroleum distillate had increased 34% in the past year. 34%! That's HUGE! India and much of the rest of the developing world also are increasing their thirst for oil. America doesn't have exclusive rights to it. Other countries' oil isn't a national birthright, especially when we refuse to develop our own (that IS our birthright) here at home.
Reduced energy production at home is also a major influence driving prices higher. It's amusing that Congress talks of suing OPEC to force OPEC to increase production, while at the same time Congress is banning more production at home. But NO ONE talks about holding Congress responsible! Why do you think Congress tries to point the finger of blame elsewhere? Because it deflect the place where true responsibility lies -- with THEM!
It's amusing to me that those who discourage more home production of oil claim that since it won't permanently satisfy the need, we may as well not even look for it. That's like saying that since next week we'll have to eat again, we may as well starve ourselves to death today! Every single barrel of home-produced oil helps!
Geopolitical concerns drive the price higher as well. It seems that 2-3 times each week, Nigeria's oil distribution network is attacked, and its workers are targeted for terrorism. Nigeria is one of America's key oil providers, and Nigeria's oil is the sweet variety that our refineries were designed for. Any risk to their oil send prices much higher. Also, the threats that Israel might attack Iran are a very serious risk to supply, and therefore send prices higher.
Gradual reduced global oil production is also sending prices higher. This is called the "peak oil" theory. Just today, Russia announced that its oil production will fall 10% in the next two years. Mexico's production is falling so rapidly that in 7 years, Mexico will have to begin to IMPORT crude oil! Often, anti-oil groups will claim that there is plenty of estimated reserves out there, and that the peak oil theory is overblown. These people always make their case based upon what MIGHT be oil reserves, not KNOWN reserves. Ironically, it is THEY who often block exploration for these supposed reserves with their lawsuits, so we can't know the reserves are there because these people are blocking us from verifying them. Their arguments are always pie-in-the-sky, not reality. Peak oil theory, on the other hand, is based upon KNOWN, SHRINKING oil reserves -- REALITY -- not pie-in-the-sky. Thus, known shrinking oil reserves trump in-the-cloud estimates every time!
Even weather sends oil prices higher. Every time the slightest risk of a hurricane is mentioned, oil prices will escalate immediately, because the risk of disruption is real.
To say that the devaluation of the currency is only X amount, and the rest must therefore ALL be speculation, is like saying that if you sleep in the garage, you must therefore be a car. The reasoning is just as silly!