Thursday, July 3, 2008

Headline Unemployment As Expected, But...

The internal data are even uglier than anticipated. While the unemployment rate is unchanged (5.5%), and the employment loss is about as expected (-62,000), some of the additional data is much worse. For example, private job losses, especially service sector jobs, are much higher than expected, and are partially offset by government job gains. The new unemployment filings are substantially higher.

Oddly enough, both the Dollar and stock indexes are rallying (at least temporarily), because all this bad news was apparently priced into the market. My gut instinct is that over the next few days, as this news is digested, and market participants realize that this is worse news than the headline, the Dollar and stock indexes will reverse off the immediate response. Perhaps this will happen today!