Friday, June 13, 2008

Grain Bull Picks Up Steam

Across the board today, fresh buying is adding steam to the bull market in grains. Continued rain and flooding in the grain-growing regions of the United States have destroyed between 25-30% of this year's crop thus far. Corn has set multiple new record highs, and is on track for a new closing high. Soybeans is just 50 cents shy of a new historical high, and wheat is surging powerfully into a new bull trend. All three grains have closed higher 8 of the past 11 trading days.

Impact of Ethanol Mandates on Food Prices
Interestingly, the USDA's recent revised crop forecast indicates that this year's crop destruction is about 390 million bushels. The Congressional ethanol mandates are for the U.S. to use 400 million bushels of this years crop. Since the original USDA crop forecast was for around 1.4 billion bushels, and that amount is now reduced to about 1 billion now, it is conceivable that if the poor weather continues, we could use about 50% of this year's entire corn crop for making ethanol. That's HUGE! Don't blame traders! Blame Washington!

Corn
Soybeans
Wheat