Friday, June 13, 2008

CPI Surprises to Upside

Monthly CPI for May was 4.2%, still higher than expected and modestly higher than the Fed's comfort zone. Unfortunately, most people I know give little credibility to the BLS measurement methodologies. Most people recognize that inflation is much higher than government statistics indicate. This is underscored by the fact that most other industrialized nations show much higher inflation that the U.S., despite their having stronger currencies. If only the U.S. reports data that is consistently lower than these other nations, it calls into question the accuracy of the data.

Since both treasuries and equities are moving higher, we must assume that the market is greeting the news with a yawn. If inflation had been hotter, we would have expected the opposite to occur.