Thursday, March 27, 2008

Grains - A Meandering River Today

The rout that might have been expected in grains hasn't occurred. My broker has not (yet) increased margins, even though the new margins requirements were published this morning. Either the CNBC report was erroneous or the margin increases are yet to come.

Treasuries futures margins were increased significantly, but other futures instruments weren't. After the forced commodity liquidations a few weeks ago, perhaps traders have learned the painful way that they should keep their powder dry and their margin accounts liquid so they aren't burned by sudden shocks to the financial system.

Soybeans are trading modestly to moderately lower, along with other grains. The charts look like a meandering river. Personally, I prefer trading of this type. I find that I make more money this way than when markets move suddenly and forcefully in on direction.

How can this be? I would answer with a question: Which river has a longer river bank? One that meanders lazily across a flatland in a snake-like pattern? Or one that moves forcefully in a straight line through a steep gorge or canyon? The meandering, lazy river ultimately covers more territory. The same is also true in the financial markets, but this trading requires more astuteness and trading back and forth. It's more work!

And that's just fine with me.