Friday, March 28, 2008

Global Investors Selling US Treasuries?

An interesting article on Minyanville is reporting that global investors, and especially governments, are beginning to flee US Treasuries. One wouldn't know it from today's charts, which showed significant price increases today, probably as investors exited the stock markets for safer waters. Here is the article:

International Investors Flee Treasuries

This is what makes my Klinger Volume indicator so interesting. Below are both the 15 minute intra-day chart for today, and the daily chart, showing the past few months. Note that in the lower panel on both charts, significant selling activity is occurring (note the red arrows). If this continues, treasury prices could fall precipitously, and interest rates would rise in response.

For months, many very savvy people in the world of finance have been predicting that governments with large US Dollar reserves would start dumping treasuries. Perhaps this is the beginning of the fulfillment of this prediction. South Korea's pension, the fifth largest in the world, has begun selling its treasuries, citing the need for diversification and poor yields.

15 Minute Chart
Daily Chart