Saturday, December 1, 2007

Dream soybeans trade

This is the kind of trade that we traders live for. It was both profitable and quick, lasting only a little over 20 minutes. I like trading the last hour of the grains trading session because it intensifies and moves smoothly.

I like to enter when prices cross the Exponential moving average, and the Klinger Volume indicator (2nd panel, red/green line crossing the yellow MA) cross at almost the same time. It is an added plus if prices have recently crossed the Bollinger Moving Average (yellow dashed line), and prices are coming off of recent highs, which they also did in this case.

I decided to exit at the end when BOTH the Klinger indicator and the MACD showed a bullish divergence at the same time, as indicated by the green lines in the 2nd and 4th panels. I have marked them with green arrows.

I probably would have gone long at the point where I exited part of my trade, except that after prices cross over the EMA, I require a confirmation by continued price movement in the new direction, which didn't occur. If there is no follow-through, then I will hold my position, or perhaps reinforce my position by adding to it. I am reluctant to reverse my position immediately following a sustained move, as occurred in this situation. Usually, after a significant move in one direction, prices will take awhile to stabilize, giving me more than one opportunity to exit. I like to see a 2nd attempt to move up, with a higher low than the previous one, before I change directions.

In this case, I wish I had added to my position, but I didn't because the Bollinger Bands were contracting rapidly and the stochastic was oversold.