Friday, December 28, 2007

Soybean sell-off due to year-end profit-taking, or increased production?

Below appears a link to Bloomberg, where the soybean sell-off today is being attributed to year-end liquidations and increased soybean planting in South America.

To tell the truth, the fundamental reason for the sell-off is irrelevant. All that matters is that it occurred. If we are always trading to give the market what it wants (Bill Williams quote found elsewhere in this blog), then the reason is irrelevant. All that matters is that is occurs, and to trade in sync with the market.

If sales were due to increased production, then the sell-off could be a top, because this news could end the soybean bull market. However, if the sell-off was due solely to year-end liquidations, then fresh buying of soybeans may occur over the next several days. If today's selling was due to both, then it could make for very interesting trading in the coming days. Stay on your toes! It is an interesting article.

Here is the Bloomberg article:

Soybean Futures Fall From 34-Year High as Farmers Boost Sales