Monday, December 24, 2007

Significant: Gold stays above 50-day Moving Average

Note here that the price of gold, which rose significantly on Friday, is continuing to close above its 50-day Moving Average, shown in this chart as a light blue line. If gold is going to maintain its lofty prices, it should surge to even higher prices soon. This could also be the trigger for the next leg up in gold prices, perhaps initiated by additional inflation data showing that inflation is becoming unmanageable by the Fed. The Fed is very concerned not only with the inflation data, but even more importantly, with the inflation expectations created in the minds of consumers.

On the other hand, also take note in this chart that the Bollinger Moving Average, shown here as a dotted yellow line, is turning DOWN. It is also a hair's breadth away from crossing under the blue 50-day MA. Many professional traders use the crossing of the 20-period Simple Moving Average (which is the same as the Bollinger MA) and the 50-day Moving Average as a trading signal. I personally don't, but I watch them because I consider them to be an important indicator as a potential inflection point. It should signal a big price shift, either up or down, in the not-too-distant future (a few weeks).

Will Friday's price gush in gold be the beginning of the next bull leg, or the last sputter of an enfeebled commodity? Stay tuned...