Friday, December 21, 2007

Soybean consolidation emerges

Note the green and red dots at the zero line on the histogram for the Bollinger Squeeze indicator (bottom subgraph, both charts). Note also that the 3 minute chart shows flat Bollinger Bands, MAs, and prices. At the same time, the tick chart has gone dead. There is little activity, which on a tick chart indicates that there are few buyers or sellers. There are no buyers or sellers, so tick-based candles don't continue to tick by, while on the time-based interval chart (left) tiny candles continue to tick the time by as it passes. The market is indecisive, and no one is willing to commit. That includes me! Therefore, now we wait.

This is NOT a time to go to lunch. Once the Bollinger Bands are breached, a flurry of buying or selling activity will emerge very rapidly as volatility rapidly rises again to a fever pitch. This would create the perfect trading conditions that Philippe Cahen describes in incredible detail in his book, Analyse Technique et Volatilite.

Note also, however, that both the Bollinger Squeeze indicator (the histogram has changed from bright green to dark green, indicating a loss of buying momentum) and the Klinger indicators (red downward-slopped line in the 1st subgraph below prices) are universally indicating selling pressure. Corn, on the other hand, is showing pressure to the upside right now (not shown).