This Sounds More and More Bubbly! Meet the Everything Bubble!

...And it sounds more and more like the "everything bubble"! Look at these headlines today:

 

Meanwhile, stocks are setting new record highs, even as jobs weaken. Job weakness, by the way, is known as a "lagging" economic indicator! It is one of the last things to drop when the economy approaches a recession. 

Farm Devastation Contitnues, But Commodity Prices Collapse

Despite that weather continues to devastate American farms, the price of corn futures today dropped by the most in several months. This headline was on Zero Hedge:

But corn futures did this today:

I'm still investigating the reasons why!

Farm Economy Getting Bludgeoned This Year

Zero Hedge this morning has this photo and article:

"And it's not just farmers that are bearing the brunt of the flooding, it's the entire agricultural economy. Those that provide supplies like seeds, fertilizer, equipment and services are also struggling. For example, BBG reports that "at Burrus Seed in Arenzville, Illinois, employees spend as much time trying to lift farmers’ spirits as they do selling to them."
Todd Burrus, owner, said:

“If we experienced a year like this, I don’t remember it. When the farm economy is tough, it’s going to be tough for all the suppliers.”

The Economic News Continues to Degrade

Stocks are up today! But the economic news isn't! I just read this quote by Michael Snyder:
"It is going to take a miracle for the U.S. economy to pull out of this tailspin, because the economic numbers are really starting to deteriorate very rapidly now.  On Tuesday we got some more new numbers, and they were just as bad as we thought they might be.  But even before today’s numbers all of the data were telling us the exact same thing.  The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index just suffered the worst one month decline in U.S. history, Morgan Stanley’s Business Conditions Index just suffered the largest one month decline that we have ever seen, global trade numbers are the worst they have been since the last recession, and just last week I detailed the complete and utter “bloodbath” that we are witnessing in the U.S. trucking industry right now."
You can read his full article here.
And this is even more bad news:

Recession Predicted By Gary Shilling

This headline today by Marketwatch suggests that recession may be imminent. I don't generally take such predictions seriously, but Gary Shilling has a pretty accurate record of forecasting such events.

Latest Real Estate Data Hints At Popping Bubble

This headline this morning suggests that the latest real estate bubble is on the verge of popping:

The Case-Shiller is the leading real estate pricing index.

Are We Near Boom -- Or Bust?

This quote seems to make the point well by Deutsche Bank's Aleksandar Kocic:
"...the economy at the moment is in a superposition of two states - it is both booming and it is headed for a recession."

One Year's Difference in Crop Growth Hints Higher Food Prices

This photo shows a one-year difference taken of the same person in the same spot on the same date one year apart. The one on the right is this year. What will happen if fall or winter weather begins before the crop on the right can be harvested? Food prices would be sharply higher!

Where's the Logic In This Headline?

I saw this headline today on Marketwatch. Where's the logic in this?

As the Fed prepares to suppress interest rates by creating more money out of nothing, and by creating more and more debt, it boosts stocks, but only artificially. Eventually, the bubble will burst -- again!

When Will Food Supplies and Prices Be Impacted?

Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Market Sighs

The Fed's Open Market Committee today left rates unchanged and indicated that it has no plans to change interest rates through the end of this year. However, by dropping the word "patient" from its statement, it hinted that it is more open to cutting rates.

Many Farmers Have Given Up On Planting Crops This Year

Read the full article here. Here is a brief quote:
"The storms that have caused major flooding in Illinois have forced farmers to give up on their crops. Forecasts for even more rain also sent corn futures to a 5-year-high, bringing the food crisis ever closer to reality. Few farmers will even see a benefit from the higher prices because they can’t even get their corn planted in the ground."

Stocks Back Near Record Highs Following Trump Tweet

Food Prices Leap Again!

Compare this chart with the one I posted on June 13th. That green candle at the top right is the rise in price within the last 20 minutes when the market reopened this evening! Note also the steady rise over the intervening days. Get used to higher food costs. They're coming!

The price was 363 on May 13th, and hit 470 today. That's about a 30% increase in just over one month!

Is Recession Headed Our Way? Morgan Stanley Seems to Think So!

One wonders, when we see a headline like this one on MarketWatch today.

Here is a brief summary of their analysis:

"The business environment is deteriorating — fast.

"That is according to a gauge of business conditions tracked by Morgan Stanley, which said in a recent note that its proprietary Business Conditions Index, or MSBCI, fell 32 points last month, marking its sharpest collapse since the metric was formulated. The gauge touched its lowest point since the 2007-08 financial crisis."

Here is a similar headline on Zero Hedge:

Meat Prices Headed Higher Also!

Food Commodity Prices Leap Again!

The Bubble Grows! Stocks Leap on Bad Economic News

The federal jobs report this morning showed less than half the number of expected jobs were created last month than were expected. That's bad for business! That suggested that corporate America may be seeing a future recession coming down the road. But the stock market is up nearly 300 points! Why? Because, as indicated in the above headline, Wall St expects the Federal Reserve to initiate more quantitative easing, creating more digital money to artificially boost stocks even higher into bubble territory! The bubble grows!

Fed Is Pandering to Stock Market. That Spells B-U-B-B-L-E!

I thought this was an interesting insight this morning from Bill Blain at Morning Porridge.
"US employment is at a high, the labour market is tightening, there is minimal real inflation and the stock market is off to the races because the Fed says its ready to ease if trade tensions impact the stock market economy.
"In 35 years of markets, this is perhaps the stupidest moment I’ve ever seen.
"There is a danger Powell et al seem are confusing the Dow and S&P for the health of the economy, thereby making the Fed complicit in the ultimate market distortion that’s being going on since someone dreamt up QE. The World’s most important central bank is missing the point completely, and more or less promising to bail out stock markets if Trade Tension causes them to weaken."

One of the chief characteristics of a bubble is that everyone dismisses risk. Heeeeere we go again! 

Farm Production Weak

"The 12 month period that concluded at the end of April was the wettest 12 month period in U.S. history, and more storms just kept on coming throughout the month of May," said Michael Snyder today.
Bloomberg said yesterday, "There has never been a spring planting season like this one. Rivers topped their banks. Levees were breached. Fields filled with water and mud. And it kept raining." 

Despite this, it appears that corn and other agricultural prices may have topped out.

Manipulated Markets, Not Free Markets

Guess which one of these headlines has affected stock prices today. The Dow is currently up over 400 points. How can stocks be so bullish when today's economic data is so bearish? Central bankers, that's how! Today's markets are manipulated. They are no longer free markets!

Food Crop Prices Accelerate Higher

Each day, I hope that farm crops will get planted and prices will reverse. However, instead of reversing, close attention to the last few candles on this chart show an acceleration higher instead!

Bond Market Flashes SIgns of Trouble Ahead

Interest rates are collapsing in the bond market, which is a sign that investors are very worried.

Look out belooooow!
“Recent data points suggest US earnings and economic risk is greater than most investors may think,” says Chief Equity Strategist Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley.

Food Commodity Prices Continue to Climb

I wonder when we'll begin to see food prices rise this sharply in t\he grocery stores. Corn is up another 8+ cents (32+ ticks) today. Other food commodities are up also.

Crop Catastrophe Coming?

Another scary headline. Wake up, America!

"The food that each one of us eats every day is produced by our farmers, and right now our farmers are truly facing a nightmare scenario." -- Michael Snyder

Are We Facing a Food Crop Crisis Soon?

This is the latest headline that I saw today that portends a possible food crisis by late this summer.

I'm not surprised because the corn commodity price accelerated higher last Friday. I wonder if this is a sign of things to come. I had hoped and expected that prices might reverse and go lower, but the price accelerated higher instead. Note the last few candlesticks on the right that were even longer and closed even higher on Friday this last week.And it's not just corn, either. Other food commodities are skyrocketing as well!

The main reason for this is that North America has been very wet this spring. Much of America's midwest farm land is flooded.
Why isn't this in the news headlines?

Food Inflation Run Amok!

Agricultural commodity prices continue to rise sharply. This is the price of corn over the past several days. Other agricultural commodities are rising as well. I wonder when food prices in the stores will begin to reflect this sharp rise. Flooded farms are the cause! Much of the United States has had a very wet spring this year, and many farms are flooded. Planting is only at 30%. It is typically more than double that amount by this time in May.
This first chart is the 4 hour chart:

This second chart is the daily one. It shows the magnitude of the price increase over just a limited number of days!

Will Food Inflation Leap This Year?

From Successful Farming website:
"Mired by a rainy and chilly spring, U.S. farmers may soon give up on planting corn in rain-soaked parts of the Farm Belt because it is getting too late for money-making yields, said economist Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois. “I truly believe we are in ‘black swan’ territory as far as late corn planting is concerned,” he said over the weekend, using a term popularized during the financial crisis a decade ago." 
The US Department of Agriculture reported last week that only 30% of U.S. corn acres were planted as of May 12; that's the fourth-slowest in records back to 1980 -- way behind the five-year average of 67%. 
But perhaps there's still hope for a good crop this year. Reuters also had this:
"Rain-driven planting delays for U.S. corn have been dragged out long enough to cause a noticeable rally in Chicago-traded futures, but speculators were not yet ready to shed their enormously bearish positions as of early last week."

Food Commodity Prices Skyrocket!

The weather-related events in North America are keeping farmers in the United States from planting their crops. One article I read last week indicated that corn planting by mid-May was only at 30%, whereas it typically is at 66% most years. This has caused the price of corn to leap higher and higher! The chart below shows the price of corn, but is similar for other food and grain commodities also!

The following quote is from Reuters this morning:

   "The talk between traders is that "prevented planted" acres
for corn may be as high as 5 million acres," said Ole Houe,
director of advisory services at brokerage IKON Commodities. 
    "Whereas in the past, we have never seen it above 3.6
million acres and then there is the debate over "yield drag"
from later planted corn."
    Showers over the next 10 days are threatening to further
slow planting from the Dakotas to Illinois, regions that have
endured torrential rain this spring, the Commodity Weather Group
said.

Stocks Rise to Record Highs Even As Economy Weakens

The bubble grows! Central bankers are nervous and have shown signs that they may engage in quantitative easing again. This is not surprising, given the economic evidence. However, there is also evidence that QE may have run its course, and may not be effective the next time around. Previous central bank presidents indicated that a suppression of 4% or more is needed, but current US Treasury interest rates are only about 2%-2.25%, so another round of QE may be ineffective the next time around.

Crude Oil Goes Ballistic

Tensions between the Saudis and the United States have sent the price of crude oil soaring today.

This situation reminds me of when the Arabs issued an embargo against the US, and gasoline prices in the US soared, and there was a shortage of gasoline in the US for a time. It also lead to a recession in the US. History repeats itself?

The Coming Carnage

Great article. 

Corn Crop Clobbered by Hurricane Michael

Note that until Hurricane Michael, corn had been trending lower for the last few days, but when the hurricane hit, prices leaped! This is one of the worst hurricanes to hit the United States in decades.

Dow Crashes 800+ Points!

Ouch!

Longest Bull Market Ever Recorded

This stock market smells more bubbly every day!

Stocks Soar on Good Trade News

Stocks soared today on news that Trump and Juncker reached a good trade deal. The S&P is just a few points below the highs reached in February.

Trade War Threat Sends Commodities Cliff Diving

These charts for corn and crude oil are symbolic of what commodity prices are doing under the threat of a trade war.

Corn Collapses

I was shocked this morning to see that the price of corn had dropped 10 cents. That's a huge drop!

Crude Continues to Ramp Up

Gas prices will soon begin to reflect the higher price of crude oil. We have now hit a higher price that the high hit in mid-May.

Climbing Crude Oil

This isn't going to be good for the economy. Crude oil is up five of the past six days.

Crude Oil Climbs Sharply

I was quite shocked at how sharply the price of crude oil climbed Friday. I understand that OPEC was unable to agree on production increases.