Monday, December 16, 2013

Technical Bounce, China Worrisome, Europe Hopeful!

China is causing worry!
Seeking Alpha explains today's strange market behavior:

"...the sell-off in S&P futures came on the heels of disappointing China Manufacturing data. Almost in lock step, whether it was a nervous trader or a more concerted effort, and in conjunction with the tensions on the Street about the FOMC meeting, they reacted harshly to that China data.
"Conversely, Europe had positive news on the same front, and that is what allowed futures to recover, but the same major concern still exists. The FOMC is clearly front and center, concerns about tapering are on everyone's mind, and analysis al have an opinion. Some think turmoil could lie ahead before the year's end, but I prefer to pay attention to one simple thing, the technicals.
"The near and midterm technicals told me to expect the bounce we are getting today, but the longer term technicals tell me that the major markets, the S&P 500 (SPY), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), NASDAQ (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), have not yet tested longer term support."

And their assessment going forward:
"Therefore, even with this nice bounce, our combined analysis warns us that it can be short lived, and the market can turn lower and officially test longer term support levels. Our rules tell us to short near resistance levels and buy near support levels. That is therefore what we intend to do as this year comes to an end."