Thursday, November 1, 2012

Party On, Pollyanna

Two misses, one marginal beat. Now that's data to rally on! The Pollyanna Party continues on Wall St!
 ISM Manufacturing: 51.7, Exp. 51.0, Last 51.5
 Consumer Confidence: 72.2, Exp. 73.0, Last 68.4
 Construction Spending: 0.6%, Exp. 0.7%, Last -0.1%
And since when does ADP have any credibility any more, since in recent months, it has revised its previous months' lower by about HALF the subsequent month, once the headline-seeking HFT algorithms are no longer watching? It changes its methodology, then revises its figures downward the next month, and does so with regularity.
And initial claims "beats" expectations again? Last week's "beat expectations" was revised lower this morning such that it no longer "beat expectations" last week.
Note how another media organization -- one that actually does more than post a headline -- predicted actually what the WSJ did today: "Oh, and this week's just as manipulated print of 363K, which was a beat of expectations of 370K, will be spun as a 9K drop in initial claims of course. Next week this number will be revised to 365K-366K as usual, because the BLS has now upward revised its weekly claims number for something like 80 weeks in a row."
This week's "beat expectations" will be revised next week such that it was about as expected -- or a "missed expectations" as last week's revision showed. How do I know? Because today's initial claims "beat expectations" was the 80th week -- in a row -- that has "beat" expectations, only to be revised worse the following week! How can that kind of record be anything BUT either bad data or manipulated data? And since when are just 158,000 considered to be "strong", as the Wall St insider was quoted to say in the article? With that many jobs created, we won't even create enough jobs for population growth, much less a robust or prosperous economy!

Dow up 140 points.