Friday, October 5, 2012

Today's Unemployment Farce

It wouldn't be election season, would it?

Today's unemployment report is so clearly a farce that it doesn't deserve any mention, but it is still today's market mover. So far, as the news and data is sliced and diced, stocks have given back about 75% of the initial gains. 

from Zero Hedge
We already noted the absolutely stunning surge in reported Household Survey jobs which "added" 873,000 jobs, or the most since 2003 and the second most in the past decade, which was just a little bit off the Household Survey used in the monthly NFP jobs changes, which came at 114,000, or about 8 times less. But what was the reason for this epic jump in Household survey jobs? Simple, and those who have read our series on America's transition to a part-time worker society know the answer. The reason is that the number of part-time people employed for economic reasons soared by 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009, when "restoring" confidence in the economy was all the rage... and just before the Fed announced the full blown QE1 in March of 2009. Odd symmetry.

Here's a peculiar statistical aberration:
  • Household Survey people employed: +873,000 (source)
  • Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000 (source)
-> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666*
Aka: precisely two thirds. Whatever are the odds...