Tuesday, June 26, 2012

U.S. Recession Imminent

One of the world's largest financial institutions, Deutsche Bank, this morning has declared that recession in the United States is imminent. They say that based upon history of 33 economic cycles over a period of the past 158 years, [b]"the next recession should start by the end of August."[/b] Yeah, that's August THIS YEAR!

Deutsche Bank, based in Germany, is one of Europe's largest financial powerhouses, with 100,000 employees in 70 countries, including the United States. It is THE largest currency dealer in the world.

Stocks, which had been trading choppy this morning, but had been in the black all morning, have tanked on this news and are now in the red.

And by the way, the Richmond Fed survey plunged and is now in the negative, which indicates economic contraction.

Real estate increased modestly last month. That's good, but its also seasonal. People tend to buy homes during the summer while the kids aren't in school.

Consumer confidence also declined -- for the fourth month in a row!

And this quote, by Art Cashin, UBS' floor manager on the NYSE, and one of Wall St's veterans, said this today in what seems like a timely statement for this topic:

"The frequency with which the world goes to hell in September seems hardly random... An interesting pattern emerges: banking crises tend to start in the second half of the year, with large September and December effects." The avuncular Art concludes with: "try to enjoy your summer".