Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Treasuries to Rise Counterintuitively

This seems counter-intuitive, but he may be spot on! As equities sink into the end of QE, there is a reflexive run for bonds and treasuries as a measure of safety. I think gold is a better bet than fiat currencies or sovereign debt.

(Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries will perform well following a downgrade by Standard & Poor's on Monday of the rating agency's credit outlook for the United States, DoubleLine Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Gundlach said on Monday.
Gundlach said Treasuries, whose major holders include foreign investors, will be in high demand as the U.S. economy will "soften subtantially" with no monetary stimulus in the pipeline.
The S&P warning, which cited a risk that policymakers may not reach agreement on a plan to slash the huge federal budget deficit, is "good for Treasuries and bad for the economy and stocks," Gundlach, who oversees $9.8 billion at the Los Angeles-based firm, told Reuters.
Last week on an investor conference call, he said: "By now it's getting relatively close to June 30 and it's about time for the markets to start discounting the end of QE2 and a weaker economy."
Gundlach is referring to the Federal Reserve's end of its purchases of $600 billion in long-term Treasuries until June 30, as part of a second round of quantitative easing.