Tuesday, November 16, 2010

TIC Data Shows Mass Stampede for the Exits

by Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge:

While we await for the Treasury Department to actually update its complete September TIC LT flow data tables, here is some of the data we can compile with what has been released so far. China is now once again solidly ahead of the Fed in terms of total Treasury holdings, owning $883.5 billion USTs in September, a $15 billion increase from August, of which $10 billion came from an increase in non-Bill holdings, and the balance from Short Term, which at $21 billion have risen to the highest since... April 2010. This is peanuts. The Fed will surpass this total by Thursday. The bigger surprise came from Japan, which added $28.4 billion in Treasury debt to a total of $865 billion, of which just $3.5 billion was from ST holdings. The broke UK moderated its torrid pace of gobbling up US debt and added just $10.7 billion in US paper to bring its new total to $459 billion. Notably, in September hedge funds (Carribean Banking Centers) sold $14 billion of Treasuries as they took the proceeds and invested it all in Apple to force the biggest short squeeze in history (note the number of HF adding Apple as of Sept. 30, shares which they have almost certainly disposed of since). The biggest surprise by far in today's TIC update had little to do with Treasury holdings but instead had everything to do with Agencies, the security most in peril courtesy of the massive fraud perpetuated by MERS and the robosigners. To wit: Foreign Official institutions (primary central banks) dumped a massive $31.4 billion in Agencies: a record number since the TIC data has been reported in 1978. This was offset marginally by Agency purchases by other foreigners of $23 billion, although the dump by central bankers what everyone will be focused on. This is certainly news that PIMCO and all the other RMBS investment funds did not need to see today.
More charts to be added as Tim Geithner finally decides to update the LT change table.
China holdings:

UK Holdings:

Total change in securities monthly:

And, most importantly, foreign holdings of Agency Securities. Note the plunge in Foreign Official Holdings: